China’s Oil Shuffle: Not So Fast, Naysayers 石油巨头高管轮换：先别急着唱衰

By newsdoug on April 11, 2011

A bit of musical chairs at China’s oil majors has been making headlines lately, followed mostly by predictions that nothing will come of the changes. The moves I’m talking about will see the former chairman of CNOOC (HKEx: 883; NYSE: CEO) become chairman of rival Sinopec (HKEx: 386; NYSE: SNP), while a top exec at China National Petroleum Corp, parent of PetroChina (HKEx: 857; NYSE: PTR; Shanghai: 601857), will fill the top job at CNOOC. (English article) While this does look like a bureaucratic reshuffling among state-run giants, I would take a slightly different view. Oil shuffle bodes well for Sinopec The reason is this: China’s telecoms industry saw a similar shuffle in 2004, that also seemed largely political at first. But since then, industry leader China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) has gone on to further consolidate its industry leading position, taking its share from 2/3 of the market at the time to 3/4 now. Unicom (NYSE: CHU; HKEx: 762) went on to lose much of its edge and innovation as the industry’s No. 2 player, while China Telecom (NYSE: CHT; HKEx: 728) went on to become downright boring under an uninspired new chief. If history repeats itself, the latest oil reshuffle could bode well for Sinopec, as its new boss was known for his entrepreneurial and innovative leadership at CNOOC.

Bottom line: China’s oil industry reshuffle should bode well for Sinopec over the next 3-5 years, transforming it into a more nimble, innovative company.

近来中国三大石油巨头如同“抢椅子”游戏一般互换高管，不少分析人士对此不以为然，认为没有任何实际效果。表面看起来，这的确与其他中国国有企业的例行高管轮换没什麽区别。但我的观点略有不同，原因在於：2004年，中国电信业采取了类似的高管大换班。自那以来，行业老大中国移动<0941.HK><CHL.N>进一步巩固了自己的领导地位，市场份额由当年的三分之二扩张至如今的四分之三；联通<0762.HK><CHU.N>保住了行业第二的地位，但锐气和创新力所剩无几；中国电信<0728.HK><CHT.N>更变得死气沉沉。如果这段历史在石油业重演，那就意味着中石化<0386.HK><SNP.N>将受益，因为中海油集团<0883.HK><CEO.N>总经理傅成玉调任中石化集团担任董事长，而傅成玉的领导和创新能力在业内有口皆碑。

一句话：中国石油巨头高层轮换有利於中石化在未来3-5年内的发展，在傅成玉的领导下，中石化将变得更加灵活、富于创新。