360Buy — More Details But Still Pricey 京东商城值多少？
We’re finally getting a bit more clarity on e-commerce company 360Buy, and why investors like Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Russia’s Digital Sky Technologies and Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) chief Robin Li all recently plowed $1.5 billion into the company, leading its Chairman Liu Qiangdong to proclaim his baby was worth $10 billion. So, let’s backtrack a bit and do a quick analysis of this one. At a media briefing in Beijing, Liu told the world his company hopes to turn profitable next year, and could make an IPO worth $2 billion or more not long after that. (English article; Chinese article) Kudos to 360Buy for at least waiting to become profitable before going public, unlike Youku (NYSE: YOKU), which decided getting to market was more important than showing investors you can actually earn money (though investors don’t seem to have cared in that case). The only problem is, 360Buy seems to have a higher image of itself than the numbers would suggest. Dangdang (NYSE: DANG), 360Buy’s only listed competitor, has a market cap of about $1.5 billion and is about a third 360Buy’s size in terms of market share, according to the reports. That means 360Buy should be worth about $5.5 billion by my estimates. The way the China market is growing, I wouldn’t be surprised to see 360Buy’s market value double in the next two years. But a lot can also happen in that time, and anyone who says the company is worth $10 billion now appears to be suffering from a case of China Internet overvaluation fever.
Bottom line: 360Buy is about two years ahead of the market in terms of its own assessment of the valuation.
沃尔玛<WMT.N>、俄罗斯DST投资公司和百度李彦宏近期向京东商城投资共约15亿美元，京东商城董事长刘强东宣称该公司价值100亿美元。那麽我们不妨来迅速分析一下吧。刘强东在记者会上表示，寄望於京东商城明年实现盈利，而实现盈利後不久将进行首次公开发行(IPO)，拟筹资20亿美元或更多。京东商城这点值得赞许，至少打算等到盈利後再上市，不像优酷<YOKU.N>，後者似乎认为上市比证明其盈利能力更重要，不过优酷投资者好像并不在意这点。眼下唯一的问题是，京东商城的形象似乎有点被吹捧了。其竞争对手当当<DANG.N>市场份额约为京东商城的三分之一，市值约15亿美元，以此推算，我认为京东商城价值应在55亿美元左右。不过鉴於中国市场扩张速度，倘若未来两年中京东商城价值增长一倍，我也不会感到奇怪。但未来两年可能发生很多事情。
一句话：京东商城对自身价值的评估，较市场超前了两年左右。
Related postings 相关文章:
◙ 360Buy — A $10 Bln Company? 京东商城价值100亿美元？
◙ 360Buy — Are They Really Worth That Much? 京东商城——真值那么多钱？
◙ Wal-Mart Buys Into China E-Commerce 沃尔玛进军中国电子商务
