CNOOC’s Latest M&A: A Shaky Oil Sand Castle 中海油收购加国油砂生产商或招来更多麻烦

By newsdoug on July 21, 2011

CNOOC’s (HKEx: 883; NYSE: CEO) $2.1 billion gamble on a bankrupt oil sands business in Canada rings of a recent Chinese M&A refrain, which has seen Chinese companies across all sectors swoop in and grab struggling overseas assets for what look like bargain prices but end up becoming major headaches. In this case, CNOOC’s purchase of OPTI Canada certainly looks good on paper. (company announcement; English article) Analysts estimate the cost of producing oil from OPTI’s main asset, an oil sands deposit in Canada, is well below the rate paid in another recent transaction and will add 5.3 percent to CNOOC’s reserves. But what the numbers don’t show is that CNOOC is making this purchase near the top of a frothy oil market, and also that it is probably acquiring more problems than it realizes with the purchase of bankrupt OPTI. Bankruptcies of this scale are never simple, and this particular one saw work on the oil sands project that OPTI was developing come to a halt due to lack of funds. Restarting the process may be harder than CNOOC realizes, as hoards of creditors will most likely have to be placated before work can resume — a process that could take months at best and years at worst. On a more macro economic basis, CNOOC has purchased this asset at the top of a heady oil market that has seen prices near or above the $100 mark per barrel for an extended period. There’s no guarantee that prices will stay that high for long, meaning any oil from this field, which will require an expensive process to produce, could ultimately be too expensive to develop if and when prices come down. Investors seem to sense all this, with CNOOC shares dipping 3 percent in Hong Kong and 4 percent in New York on Wednesday. Like many of China’s overseas M&As, this one will hardly be a simple one to execute well.

Bottom line: Despite a bargain price, CNOOC is getting a complicated deal with its purchase of a bankrupt Canadian oil sands producer, which could result in headaches for CNOOC down the road.

中海油<0883.HK> <CEO.N>以21亿美元收购一家加拿大油砂生产商OPTI，这是中国企业近年来进行海外并购的又一宗案例。表面看来这起收购确实不错。分析师预计从OPTI主要资产进行开采的成本远低於最近的另一项交易，并将使中海油储量增加5.3%。但财务数字没有体现出来的是，中海油是在油市高点进行这宗交易的，这家加拿大破产油砂企业的问题可能比中海油预计的要更多。如此规模的破产从来都不是容易的事，而这家企业正是因为缺乏资金而停掉了油砂项目。重启项目要比中海油所预料得要更难，因为重启项目需要先安抚好债权人，而这至少需要几个月的时间，最糟糕则要数年。从更加宏观的角度来看，中海油是在油市高点进行这笔交易的，原油每桶近100美元或更高已持续好一段时间了，没人能保证油价会一直这麽高。这意味着如果油价下降，从这里开采将会变得太昂贵。投资者可能已经意识到这点，周三中海油在香港和纽约股市的股价分别下跌了3%和4%。和中国很多其他海外并购案一样，这个并购案也不会容易操作。

一句话：尽管收购价格便宜，但中海油收购加拿大破产油砂企业可能会在未来令其遭遇更多难题。

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