Tencent and Alibaba: It’s Not Easy Being Big 腾讯和阿里巴巴：想当老大不容易
Internet titans Tencent (HKEx: 700) and Alibaba.com (HKEx: 1688) have worked hard over the years to become leaders in their respective spaces, reaping big rewards for shareholders in the process as their profits grew quickly in line with their revenues. But now the pair are suddenly waking up to a mid-life crisis, reflected by their latest quarterly results that showed sharply slowing growth. Alibaba.com, China’s leading B2B website, saw its second-quarter profit rise 29 percent, not bad in number terms but still the lowest rise in a year and a half. (English article) But perhaps more worrying was its drop in paying members, reflecting the simple fact that there are only so many potential companies in China who want to do their buying and selling on the Web. Results for leading online game operator Tencent were equally lackluster and perhaps even more worrisome, with profit up 29 percent, again not bad in absolute terms but the slowest growth rate in 4 years, while margins fell sharply as it spent money on new initiatives. (English article) Since peaking in May, Tencent’s shares are down 23 percent, while Alibaba.com’s are off by nearly half from a high in March. Alibaba investors should get set for a long winter, as the company doesn’t really seem to have any major new growth engines in the pipeline and it appears simply to be trying to squeeze more money out of existing customers — a strategy also being tried by search leader Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) but one that has very limited potential. Tencent looks a bit more interesting, with major new initiatives in the pipeline in the fast-growing but extremely competitive e-commerce and video sharing spaces. Given Tencent’s strong past record at execution, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it find some success in one or both of these areas, helping to restart its fading growth. But regardless, both Alibaba and Tencent are unlikely to see profit or revenue growth again above the 30 percent level anytime soon.
Bottom line: Internet giants Tencent and Alibaba.com are increasingly maturing, and won’t see top or bottom line growth above 30 percent in the next 2 years.
互联网巨头腾讯<0700.HK>和阿里巴巴<1688.HK>过去几年努力成为各自领域的领头羊，并在此过程中为其股东带来了巨额回报。但现如今，这两家企业突然间意识到自己陷入了“中年危机”，最明显的表现就是，最新的季度财报显示其增速骤然放缓。阿里巴巴第二季度利润上升29%，虽然不算太差，但仍是一年半中增速最慢的一个季度。但更令人担心的是，其商户的不断减少，这也反映出一个简单的事实，即中国只有少部分潜在企业愿意在网上进行交易。腾讯的业绩也乏善可陈，可能甚至更糟，其第二季度利润同比增长29%，从绝对数字来看并不算太差，但却是其四年来增速最慢的一次，同时由於其大举投资新项目，利润率也大幅下滑。自5月份达到峰值以来，腾讯的股价已下跌23%，而阿里巴巴的股价则从3月份的高点下跌了近一半。阿里巴巴投资者应做好应对漫长冬季的准备，因该公司似乎并无任何新的重要增长引擎可推出，公司似乎也只是试图从现有客户身上赚取更多钱。互联网搜索引擎巨头百度<BIDU.O>也在尝试这一策略，但其效果非常有限。腾讯的情况看起来更为有趣，该公司计划在快速发展但竞争异常激烈的电子商务和视频分享领域推出新的项目。鉴於腾讯过去强有力的执行记录，如果发现腾讯在上述两领域或其中之一获得成功，我并不会感到意外，这也有助於其重启增长态势。但无论如何，阿里巴巴和腾讯的利润或营收都不太可能在短时间内再次回到30%以上。
一句话：腾讯和阿里巴巴都日益成熟，但在未来两年内其营收或利润增长都不太可能回到30%以上。
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◙ Sina, Tencent Pose Threat in SNS, E-Commerce 新浪腾讯攻城掠地
◙ Alibaba’s Latest Yahoo Spat Masks Tepid Results 阿里巴巴与雅虎打口水仗是场烟幕弹？
◙ Tencent Looks to the Stars to Power Video Dreams 腾讯借力华谊 进军网络视频领域
