360Buy IPO: Let the Delays Begin 京东商城放缓IPO进程
Just a week after leaking out word that it was accelerating plans for an IPO to raise up to $5 billion, leading online merchant 360Buy is waking up to the reality that perhaps nobody wants to buy into its shaky story, with Chinese media reporting the company has decided to slow down the ambitious offering. (Chinese article) Does this come as a surprise to me or anyone else who’s been watching the rapidly chilling market for Chinese IPOs in the US? Any regular readers will know the answer to this question is a definite “no”, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see this IPO shelved indefinitely until 360Buy either runs out of cash or market sentiment improves significantly, which in all likelihood won’t happen until late next year. The latest reports, citing people in the investment banking community, cleverly point out that 360Buy wasn’t even planning an IPO until the second quarter of next year anyway, after those same sources got the market buzzing last week by saying the selection of underwriters was underway, implying the blockbuster offering could come as soon as the end of this year. (previous post) Now those investment banking sources are saying that 360Buy is further delaying the process due to “less than perfect” financials, an obvious reference to the fact that the company has yet to turn a profit and previously predicted it wouldn’t even break even until 2012. With the current rampant competition in China’s e-commerce market, I wouldn’t be surprised if 360Buy, which also goes by the name Jingdong Mall and whose investors include Russian Facebook backer Digital Sky Technologies, has to delay its break-even forecast by another year, meaning it won’t be able to show any meaningful profits until 2014 at the earliest. If that’s the case, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this offering delayed until 2013 or even later and for far less than $5 billion, assuming the company is still in business at that point after China’s looming Internet bubble bursts.
Bottom line: 360Buy’s clumsy attempt to test the market for a blockbuster IPO has met with little or no interest, forcing it to delay the deal to to 2013 or later.
仅在一周前，京东商城透露称将加速赴美上市融资50亿美元的计划，但或许是意识到没人买账的现实，据中国媒体报导称，京东商城已决定放缓IPO进程。对于我和其他关注中国企业赴美上市热潮迅速降温的人来说，感到惊讶吗？一直关注我的专栏的读者都知道，答案绝对是否定的。除非京东商城资金链断裂或市场环境明显改善（在明年下半年前都不太可能发生），否则京东商城无限期搁置IPO计划，我一定都不会感到惊讶。近期报导援引投行人士的说法巧妙指出，京东商城甚至不打算在明年第二季度前进行IPO。上述消息人士上周称，京东商城正在选择承销商，暗示其最早今年底将进行IPO，此话引发市场骚动。这些投行消息人士现在却说，京东商城因财务不完善，将进一步推迟IPO时间，明显是指京东商城尚未盈利的事实，先前有人预计，甚至到2012年，京东商城可能都无法实现收支平衡。鉴于中国电子商务市场竞争激烈的现状，如果京东商城将盈利时间点再推迟一年，即最早2014年才有望实现大幅盈利，我不会对此感到惊讶。如果确实如此，我认为，假如中国互联网泡沫破裂後，京东商城还在运营的话，该公司IPO将推迟到2013年或之後进行，融资规模也将远远小于50亿美元，
一句话：京东商城以大规模IPO计划，笨拙试探市场，但感兴趣者寥寥无几，迫使其推迟IPO计划至2013年或之後。
Related postings 相关文章:
◙ Wal-Mart Finds Bargain in China’s Internet Bubble
◙ 360Buy $5 Bln IPO Plan Looks Like Desperation 京东商城50亿美元上市计划凸显绝望
◙ 360Buy Cuts Off Alipay As China Internet Froth Builds 京东停用支付宝印证中国互联网泡沫
