Perfect World: Trouble Brewing in Online Games? 完美世界调降财测释放行业预警信号

By newsdoug on September 16, 2011

Trouble brewing at Perfect World With all the buzz out there about a looming China Internet bubble, new downwardly revised guidance from Perfect World (Nasdaq: PWRD), one of China’s more innovative and outward looking online game operators, looks like a potentially worrisome warning flag. According to its newly released latest estimate, the company expects to earn around 720 million yuan in revenue for the third quarter, or about $110 million, down by a sizeable 8 percent from its previous forecast given out just 3 weeks ago for about 780 million yuan. (English announcement) The company cites a new “take it slower” strategy to lengthen the lifecycle of its games, but that didn’t help its shares which tumbled 20 percent on the Nasdaq after it made the announcement. Reaction on Wall Street was mixed for other Chinese online game sites, with Sohu’s (Nasdaq: SOHU) Changyou (Nasdaq: CYOU) and NetEase (Nasdaq: NTES) both down around 5 percent or more, while Shanda Games (Nasdaq: GAME) was down by a more modest 1.1 percent. Up until now I haven’t really discussed whether online games would be affected by China’s looming Internet bubble, as this category gets most of its money from young gamers who are a different set of customers from the more mainstream online shoppers whose overhyped potential is fueling the current bubble in e-commerce and group buying sites. Recent growth in the online game market has been much more reasonable than e-commerce, and the sector has attracted far fewer new investment dollars in the last year, so I think it’s probably a bit too early to say this group is set for a correction based only on this one downward revision. But one or more similar announcements from other big players will definitely cast a chill over this sector, which, despite its more reasonable growth rates, is still highly competitive with a large cast of companies fighting for a relatively small pool of gamers’ spending.

Bottom line: Perfect World’s downward revision for its Q3 revenue is a worrisome signal for the online game sector, though it’s too early to say if a broader shake-up is looming.

就在中国互联网泡沫即将破灭的议论不断之时，极具创新性和外向型的在线游戏运行商–完美世界(PWRD.O)最近下调财测，看似是对互联网泡沫忧虑的印证。该公司最近公布的预测显示，第三季度营收预计为7.2亿元人民币左右，较三周前预测的7.8亿元下降近8%。完美世界称新制定了“放缓”战略以延长游戏产品的生命周期，但这没有对股价形成支撑，声明发布之後该公司股票在Nasdaq市场下跌了20%。华尔街对其他中国在线游戏公司股票的反应好坏参半，搜狐畅游和网易的股价都下跌了5%以上。盛大游戏下跌1.1%，跌幅相对较小。到目前为止，我没有真正谈起中国的互联网泡沫是否会影响到在线游戏公司。这个行业的大部分营收来自年轻的游戏玩家，他们与更加主流的在线购物网站的客户不同，後者易于接受天花乱坠的宣传，可能加速电子商务和团购网站的泡沫化。与电子商务市场相比，最近在线游戏市场增长则更加理性，在过去一年里吸引的投资也远小得多，因此，我认为仅仅根据这一次财测下调尚不足以说明，在线游戏行业发展将出现修正。但是，其他大型公司若发布一两个类似声明，将无疑说明这个行业的危机临近，尽管在线游戏行业增长率更加合理，由于大量公司争夺相对较小的在线游戏收入，业界也充满竞争压力。

一句话：完美世界调降三季度营收预测，发出在线游戏行业令人忧虑的信号，不过要说更大范围的变动即将来临也还为时尚早。