CITIC Securities $2 Bln IPO Looks Good, With Potential to Jumpstart HK 中信证券香港IPO值得期待
Despite a frosty environment for new initial public offerings, China’s largest brokerage CITIC Securities (Shanghai: 600030) has announced its moving ahead with a planned IPO worth nearly $2 billion, in what looks like a good bet to breathe some new life into an otherwise moribund market. (English article) CITIC Securities, whose shares have been listed in Shanghai since 2003, is taking an interesting gamble with this offering, and the timing looks particularly curious since the Hong Kong market is down more than 10 percent since the last mega-offering when Prada (HKEx: 1913) listed its shares in June. I suspect the Chinese government has quietly pushed CITIC to go ahead with this deal, as a successful offering could potentially breathe new life not only into Hong Kong, but also into the sputtering Shanghai stock market, which has lost a comparable amount since June. In my view, CITIC Securities represents one of the strongest bets you’ll see for China’s the financial sector, which can always get investors excited due to the nation’s huge growth potential. It’s the premier name among Chinese brokerages which are generally commercially driven, unlike banks that take their cues from the government. What’s more, Chinese brokerages also work as investment banks, giving them nice exposure to a sizable Chinese IPO and bond underwriting market off-limits to foreigners. CITIC Securities now trades at a healthy 15 times this year’s earnings, which is about the industry average. All that said, barring a major sell-off in Hong Kong or Shanghai, I would expect to see this offering do nicely when it debuts in October, possibly giving a small kick to the sputtering Hong Kong and Chinese markets.
Bottom line: CITIC Securities will offer international investors a strong window into China’s brokerage sector, and is likely to see strong demand for its October IPO.
尽管当前新股发行环境严峻，中信证券仍宣布推进在香港规模近20亿美元的首次公开发行（IPO）计划，这或许能为死气沉沉的市场注入些许活力。中信证券2003年就已在A股挂牌，此次香港招股时机有点令人费解，毕竟港股大盘自6月Prada大宗IPO以来已跌逾10%。我推测，可能是中国政府暗中推动中信证券IPO，因为若其招股案成功，不仅能为港股注入新的生机，可能也有助於提振A股，A股6月以来也跌幅惨重。我认为，中信证券是押注中国金融业的一个机会，由於中国经济增长潜力巨大，其金融业也总是能让投资者感到兴奋。中信证券是中国券商中的佼佼者，有别于那些唯行政指引是瞻的银行，中信证券整体上是受商业因素驱动。此外，中国券商也扮演投资银行的角色，因此能受益於中国企业招股活动，以及债券承销业务。中信证券市盈率为15倍，处於健康水准，与行业平均水平相仿。因此除非港股或A股出现沉重跌势，否则中信证券10月在港股挂牌应有不俗表现，或许还能稍稍提振港股和A股。
一句话：中信证券IPO，是国际投资者投资中国券商行业的良机，其10月IPO可能吸引旺盛需求。
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