US China Stocks: Bloodbath Becomes Correction 在美上市中资股遭抛售 迈入股价修正新阶段

The sell-off of US-listed China stocks accelerated on Thursday, with shares of premier names Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) each dropping around 10 percent after US media quoted a securities regulator saying his agency was looking into accounting fraud by US-listed Chinese firms. (English article) But after months of negative news and selling of these stocks, I’m convinced this sell-off is moving into a new phase that marks a long-awaited correction in unrealistic valuations for many of these companies during a massive run-up in their prices over the last few years fueled by China Internet hype. A closer look at the market will show that the Thursday sell-off was hardly broad-based but rather was largely limited to companies with overinflated valuations. Even after a sell-off that has seen its shares drop more than 30 percent in the last 3 of weeks, Sina shares still trade at a ridiculously high price-to-earnings ratio of 115 times earnings for the next 12 months. Baidu shares, which have lost a similar amount over the same period, now trade at a more reasonable but still high PE of 42. By comparison, online travel leader Ctrip (Nasdaq: CTRP) and leading social networking site Renren (NYSE: RENN) both saw their shares actually gain on Wall Street on Thursday, as each announced a share buyback plan of $100 million and $150 million, respectively. (Ctrip announcement; Renren announcement) Perhaps these buy-back announcements helped to protect Ctrip and Renren’s shares to some extent in yesterday’s sell-off; but more importantly, Ctrip now has a more modest valuation of 30 times earnings for the next 12 months, while Renren’s PE is negative as it’s still losing money. All that said, I think it’s highly unlikely that these bigger, industry leaders are the focus of regulatory investigations, which are mostly reserved for the smaller US-listed China firms without big-name accountants. Instead, this continued sell-off looks like it has turned into a much needed correction for overhyped Chinese stocks, which will continue until their valuations come down to more reasonable levels.

Bottom line: Investors who profited from a run-up in US-listed Chinese stocks over the last few years are seizing on a confidence crisis to pocket their gains.

在美上市中资股周四再遭抛售。美国媒体引述美国证券交易委员会一位官员的话表示，司法部正在调查一些在美国股票交易所挂牌的中资企业财务违规问题。受此影响，百度<BIDU.O>、新浪<SINA.O>等双双大跌约10%。不过，经过数月来的负面消息与相关股票的抛售，我认为中资股抛售正进入新阶段，开始修正过去几年来对这些企业逐渐形成的不现实估值。细看市场表现，你会发现周四中资股并非全面遭遇抛售，主要局限於估值过高企业。过去三周新浪股价虽已大跌超30%，但其未来12个月动态市盈率仍高达115倍。百度股价同期跌幅与新浪几乎相当，目前其市盈率为42倍，相对合理一些，但仍非常高。相比之下，中国国内领先的携程旅行网<CTRP.O>与社交网络人人网<RENN.N>周四实际逆势上扬。两公司均宣布股票回购计划，规模分别为1亿美元与1.5亿，也许回购计划在一定程度上帮助两公司股票在昨天的抛售中免遭一劫。但更重要的是，携程未来12个月动态市盈率为30倍，人人网由於仍在亏损，市盈率为负值。虽然如此，我认为这些行业领头羊不大可能是此次监管调查的焦点，调查重点可能主要集中在所用会计企业不太知名的、在美上市较小中资企业。此次继续抛售看起来正转变为中国概念股的修正，相关企业估值回到合理水平前，股价修正还会继续。

一句话：过去几年中利用在美上市中资股获利的投资者正抓住此次信任危机售股套现。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ US-Listed China Firms Fight Back — Finally 中国赴美上市公司最终还击

◙ Securities Regulator Seizes on US Confidence Crisis 中国证监会或介入企业海外上市

◙ Accounting Scandal Claims AutoChina As Second Big Victim