ZTE: Ready for a Breather 中兴通讯：遇到了减速带

A slowdown at telecoms superstar ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) was bound to happen sooner or later, but the one we’ve seen in the company’s just-published fourth quarter results has come a bit sooner than even I expected. Despite the huge spend on 3G telecoms in China and India last year, ZTE saw its 2010 revenue rise by just 21 percent, including an anemic 27 percent outside China. Sure, most Western companies would probably kill for that kind of growth, but it looks like a sharp slowdown for a company that was seeing its international revenue double every year for a while there. Lingering problems in India mean that growth from that market may not come back right away, and a hoped-for opening of the US market may be at least a year off. That said, look for even more sluggish results from China’s former high-flyer, and also for its cross-town rival Huawei, in 2011.

Bottom line: ZTE’s high-flying days have hit a major speed bump, with an even sharper slowdown likely in 2011.

国际电信业超级巨星中兴通讯<0763.HK><000063.SZ>，其势头减弱本来是早晚的事。但是其刚刚发布的第四季度财报还是让人失望。

尽管中印两国在过去一年不惜巨资投入3G建设，中兴通讯2010年的营收只上升区区21%，在中国以外市场的增长只有27%。当然，多数西方公司对这种增速已是垂涎三尺，但对於这家在若干年来几乎年年实现国际业务翻番的公司来说，这可是严重倒退。

在印度市场存而未决的问题，意味着中兴在那里的增长速度一时难以恢复；想打开美国市场大门，至少是一年以後的事。这样一来，中国一度的“电信明星”——中兴和华为在2011年的增速恐怕仍将萎靡。

一句话：中兴的高歌猛进时代暂告一段落，2011年增速放缓势在难免。