China Mobile Pushes Ahead With 4G Trial, Challenges Regulator 中国移动急於进军4G

China Mobile (NYSE: CHL; HKEx: 941) is pushing ahead with its 4G trial expansion, even after signs the regulator won’t give licenses for another 2-3 years at the earliest. One of my sources tells me China’s phone giant, which is hemorrhaging market share to rivals Unicom (NYSE: CHU; HKEx: 762) and China Telecom (NYSE: CHT; HKEx: 728) in the 3G space, awarded contracts to build trial networks for its TD-LTE technology in six or seven cities late last week. According to him, contract winners include the usual suspects, Huawei, ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen 000063), Nokia Siemens and Datang; one surprise may have come when global powerhouse Ericsson (Stockholm: ERICb) failed to make the cut, but that has yet to be confirmed. Regardless, the fact that China Mobile is pressing ahead with a major expansion of 4G trials shows it’s determined to bring TD-LTE to market sooner rather than later. I see a battle shaping up between them and the regulator, which is clearly more inclined to give the industry more time to get its 3G networks up and running before moving to 4G.

Bottom line: Look for China Mobile to spar with the telecoms regulator over timing for 4G licenses, with the regulator’s go-slow approach likely to win the battle.

中国移动<CHL.N><0941.HK>正推进其4G试验网络的扩张，尽管有迹象显示监管曾在未来2-3年内都不大可能发放4G牌照。有消息人士告诉我，在其3G市场份额不断向联通<CHU.N><0762.HK>和中国电信<CHT.N><0728.HK>流失的情况下，中国移动上周派发了在6-7个城市建设TD-LTE技术试验网络的合同，赢得 合同的包括华为、中兴通讯<0763.HK><000063.SZ>，诺基亚-西门子和大唐电信。唯一令人惊讶的是巨头爱立 信<ERICb.ST>没能分得一杯羹，但上述消息还有待证实。不管怎样，中国电信扩张TD-LTE技术试验网络，说明它已经下定决心尽早实现4G商用。运营商与监管层之间针对4G牌照时间表的角力即将开始，监管层显然希望3G网络成熟後再向4G过渡。

一句话：中国移动将开始针对4G时机与监管层较劲，而监管层的谨慎态度更有可能占上风。