360Buy — A $10 Bln Company? 京东商城价值100亿美元？

By newsdoug on April 19, 2011

A couple of weeks after reporting my amazement at a $1.5 billion foreign investment in e-commerce site 360Buy (previous post), one of the investors is finally speaking out to defend the move. A top exec at Digital Sky Technologies (DST), the Russian firm whose investments include a major stake in Facebook, is saying in a local interview he thinks 360Buy may be worth about $10 billion, which should give everyone an idea of how much the group got for its $1.5 billion investment. (Chinese article) In fairness, 360Buy, which hasn’t given any financials, has a solid reputation in China and is certainly an e-commerce leader. But let’s take a look at the competition: Sure, Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Tencent (HKEx: 700) have become darlings of investors, who have given them sky-high valuations and meteoric market caps in the $30-$40 billion range. But after those, most top Chinese Internet firms, including leaders like Sina (Nasdaq: SINA), NetEase (Nasdaq: NTES) and Shanda (Nasdaq: SNDA), have been stuck in the $6-$8 billion range for quite a while. So, is 360Buy really worth $10 billion? We’ll have to see some financials before we can give a better answer, but I predict the numbers will ultimately disappoint and investors will be reluctant to reward the company with valuations like those for Baidu and Tencent.

Bottom line: DST made a smart investment in Facebook, but its 360Buy investment is overly optimistic and will yield much lower returns.

本月早些时候，我对京东商城获得海外15亿美元融资感到诧异，如今主要投资方之一终於站出来谈论此项投资的合理性。俄罗斯投资公司DST高管称，他认为京东商城价值约100亿美元。京东商城未曾公布过财务数据，不过公平地说，在中国大陆口碑还不错，堪称电子商务巨头。但我们不妨看看其它竞争者的情况：百度<BIDU.O>和腾讯<0700.HK>成了投资者的宠儿，市值达到三四百亿美元。但除此之外，中国多数顶尖互联网企业，包括新浪<SINA.O>，网易<NTES.O>和盛大网络<SNDA.O>，市值均徘徊於60-80亿美元。因此，京东商城真的价值100亿美元吗？我们恐怕先得看看财务数据，才能更好地判断。但据我推测，其财务数据最终将令人失望，投资者对其估值将远远无法媲美百度和腾讯。

一句话：DST当初投资Facebook是明智的，但这次投资京东商城恐怕是太过乐观了，得到的回报会低得多。

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