Baidu Mobile OS, Homepage Revamp Look Like Dicey Bets 百度新举措旨在冒险一搏

By newsdoug on September 5, 2011

Baidu looks for Android killer I don’t know whether to call Baidu’s (Nasdaq: BIDU) latest series of initiatives smart or desperate, as we’re not getting quite enough information just yet to make an informed decision about upcoming plans to launch its own mobile operating system (English article) and revamp its online homepage. (English article) In my view, both of these major new initiatives, which have the potential to greatly help or harm Baidu, are driven at least partly by its realization that Beijing anti-trust regulators are watching it closely, and that it needs to quickly find some new businesses in case those regulators ever decide to take anti-trust action against it. That said, both of these new initiatives are fraught with risk, and Baidu’s past record of poor execution outside its core search area makes me think both are more likely to fail than succeed. From what I’ve read in media reports, Baidu’s home page revamp looks aimed at getting more users to register on the site, allowing Baidu to sell them a range of new products it is trying to develop to diversify beyond search. In announcing the revamp, Baidu chief Robin Li openly admitted the changes may drive some Web surfers to its competitors, and perhaps he’s even hoping some of the lower-quality users may leave to make his company look less like a monopoly. As to the new mobile operating system, this looks like Baidu trying to imitate much larger global rival Google (Nasdaq: GOOG), whose Android has quickly risen to become the world’s top smartphone OS. On this topic, Baidu seems to be a bit late coming to the game, but could perhaps be helped by Google’s recent plan to buy cellphone maker Motorola Mobility (NYSE: MMI), which seems to be alienating many other Android smartphone makers that believe Google will give special treatment to Motorola. That development may offer an oppurtunity for Baidu, which could find potential interest for its mobile OS especially among domestic smartphone makers like ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) and Huawei. But I wouldn’t bet money on success for either the new OS or Baidu’s new homepage.

Bottom line: Baidu’s new homepage and mobile OS initiatives are its latest attempts to divert attention from its near monopoly status in online search, and both stand a good chance of failure.

百度(BIDU.O)计划推出手机操作系统，并对网站主页进行改版。因为了解到的信息不足，我不知道应该把百度近期的这些举动称为明智之举还是绝望中抓稻草。这两项重大举措或许让百度获益匪浅，也有可能让百度遭受重大冲击。不过，我认为至少部分可归因于百度已经意识到，政府反垄断监管机构正密切关注其业务，公司需要迅速开发新业务，以规避监管机构决定对其采取不利行动的风险。也就是说，百度两大新举措都伴有风险。鉴于百度此前在核心搜索业务以外的业务表现欠佳，我认为这两项新尝试失败的机率较大。我看到的媒体报导称，百度主页改版旨在吸引更多用户注册，从而推销除搜索以外的一系列新产品，实乃对业务多元化的尝试。百度董事长李彦宏在宣布网页改版时公开承认，改版或将一些用户推向竞争对手，他甚至希望，一些低质量的用户能因此离去，从而让百度看起来不那麽像垄断企业。至于新的手机操作系统，百度似乎想模仿谷歌(GOOG.O)，谷歌的Android系统已经迅速成长为全球顶级智能手机操作系统。在这方面，百度似乎有些後知後觉，但谷歌近期收购摩托罗拉移动(MMI.N)可能会对百度有利。谷歌的收购行动可能令其它Android手机厂商认为，谷歌将为摩托罗拉提供特别优惠，因此疏远谷歌。中兴通讯(000063.SZ; 0763.HK)和华为等本土智能手机制造商或对百度的移动操作系统感兴趣。然而，我还是不敢保证，百度新推出的手机操作系统和主页改版一定会成功。

一句话：百度主页改版，以及推出手机操作系统，是百度转移监管机构对其垄断地位关注的最新尝试，两项举措最终失败的可能性都很大。