Baidu’s Mobile Plan: Do We Need Another OS? 百度手机操作系统计划有没有市场？

By newsdoug on June 29, 2011

Baidu OS: a call in the wrong direction There’s been a flurry of reports in the Chinese media recently about Baidu’s (Nasdaq: BIDU) plans to roll out a mobile operating system later this year, with some saying the OS will make its debut very soon (Chinese article) and others saying it will be closer to year-end (Chinese article). Reports that China’s leading search engine was developing such a system first emerged earlier this year (previous post), and my response to all the buzz now is similar to what I said before: Does the world really need another mobile OS? But first things first and let’s discuss this new OS. Most intriguingly, some of the reports say that Baidu’s new OS will be based on Android, the wildly popular open-source smartphone mobile operating system developed by Google (Nasdaq: GOOG). If those reports are true, which seems quite possible as I doubt Baidu would develop a new system completely on its own, then this new system would see the two companies, which have a complex history of cooperation and competition, coming together to create a potent mix in the mobile OS market. Most will recall that Google pulled out of the China search market last year after a high-profile dispute with Beijing over censorship, so this could provide yet another back-door for Google to get back into the market, which it is already doing through similar Android tie-ups with most of China’s major cellphone makers. But my main question is this: Since most domestic and foreign cellphone makers that sell into China already use their own variations of Android in many of their smartphones, who exactly would want to drop their own designs in favor of a Baidu-developed OS, which might come with additional licensing fees and force the cellphone maker to work with Baidu? The answer is few will be interested, with the result that Baidu’s mobile OS is likely to fail, like many of its other recent initiatives.

Bottom line: Baidu’s new plans for a mobile OS, possibly based on Google’s Android system, are set to fail because no cellphone makers will want to use it.

中国媒体近来广泛报导百度<BIDU.O>计划於今年推出一款手机操作系统，一些报导称该系统很快会亮相，而另外一些报导说将在今年年底前推出。有关百度推手机操作系统的报导最早出现在今年早些时候，我当时也写过一篇博文。我这次的反应与以前类似：世界真需要一个新的手机操作系统吗？不过首先还是先说一下这个新操作系统什麽样。最有意思的是，一些报导称百度的新操作系统是以谷歌<GOOG.O> Android开源智能手机操作系统为基础的。如果报导属实（相当有可能，因为我觉得百度不大可能完全从头开发一套新系统），那麽新系统将见证这两家关系复杂的企业在手机操作系统市场创造出一个潜力巨大的混血产品。很多人都应记得谷歌去年撤离了中国搜索市场，而这次与百度的潜在合作有可能成为谷歌回归中国的又一道後门。但我的主要问题是：因为多数中外手机制造商本来就在使用各种版本的Android系统，谁会想要放弃自己的设计，去支持另一个由百度开发的操作系统，而且有可能需要交额外的许可证费用，还不得不与百度合作呢？答案是有兴趣者将寥寥，结果可能会是百度手机操作系统夭折，落得与该公司近来其他举措一样的下场。

一句话：百度手机操作系统计划前景堪忧，因为大概没有哪家手机制造商愿意使用。

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