Banks: CCB Bets on Downturn, BOC Keeps Head in Sand 中行依旧高歌猛进，建行趋向保守

Fourth-quarter results are out for two of China’s top three banks, and they paint decidedly different pictures for No. 3 lender Bank of China (Shanghai: 601988; HKEx: 3988) and No. 2 China Construction Bank (Shanghai: 6019399; HKEx: 939). First BOC, whose fourth-quarter profit soared 33 percent. I’ve always been a bit wary about Chinese banks in general, and this huge jump — even as Beiijing is trying to rein in lending — shows that BOC is a bit addicted to doling out money in search of big returns, leaving itself highly exposed to the inevitable downturn set to come in the next 12 months. China Construction Bank’s profit, by comparison, rose a much more modest 18 percent, well below its full-year growth of 26 percent, showing it’s getting a bit more serious about bracing for the downturn. (Chinese report) If I were to choose between these two, the choice would be simple. CCB is  getting serious about preparing for the coming storm, while BOC doesn’t seem to even notice the growing clouds on the horizon.

Bottom line: Chinese banks aren’t a great buy in the current climate, but China Construction Bank, with its more conservative approach, offers a better bet than Bank of China.

中国第二和第三大银行–建行<601939.SS><0939.HK>和中行<601988.SS><3988.HK>都发布了2010年第四季度财报。先看中行，其第四季度利润上涨33%。我通常对中国的银行都心存忧虑。在中央政府试图收紧贷款的情况下，中行的利润仍能如此跃升，说明中行仍旧沉醉于大笔撒 钱换取高额回报的模式。面对未来12个月中国经济将不可避免放缓的大环境，中行风险大增。相对来说，建行第四季度例利润18%的增幅较为温和，远低於该行 全年利润上升26%的幅度。这显示建行对经济放缓准备更加充分。

一句话：在目前的经济环境下，中国的银行股并不适合买入。但建行已经未雨绸缪，采取比较保守的策略，与中行比起来，它显然更吸引人一些。