BYD True Test Begins With EV Consumer Roll-Out 比亚迪电动车上市 真正的考验刚刚开始
After about a year of pilot tests with government-backed bus and taxi fleets, struggling car maker BYD (HKEx: 1211; Shenzhen: 002594) is finally launching its electric vehicles (EV) for the consumer market, in a pivotal move as it tries to reverse its rapid decline. The company, backed by billionaire investor Warren Buffett, has certainly prepared well for this launch, using the past year to address many of the problems its EVs are likely to face by testing them out in programs backed by the government in its hometown of Shenzhen, which has been highly supportive of the drive. BYD says it will start selling the cars in Shenzhen first, which also looks like a good move as the local government will continue to provide support in the forms of subsidies towards the purchase price and, in a more unusual move, will help buyers install charging stations in their homes. (company announcement) But even after generous subsidies of about $18,000 per vehicle, BYD still estimates that new electric cars will cost consumers about $38,400 each — a relatively hefty price for an untested technology when the same amount of money could buy a very nice new gasoline-powered car. The high price tag and all the lingering questions associated with a new technology like this mean the consumer market for these vehicles will probably be very limited at first, and I would expect BYD to sell no more than 2,000 EVs to consumers per month in the first 6 months of this launch. That kind of slow start will hardly help BYD’s current situation, which has seen its profits shrink almost to zero as it grapples with a sharp decline for its traditional gasoline-burning cars. Still, this consumer launch is a step in the right direction, as the company’s big bet on electric vehicles will only succeed if those EVs get good response from consumers. That said, BYD has done about everything it can to give its EV program a strong chance of success, and the next few months will be critical to see if consumers can accept this pricey but potentially interesting new technology.
Bottom line: The next 6-12 months will be critical for BYD’s EV campaign, as it waits to see if ordinary buyers accept its electric cars following their consumer launch.
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