Car Sales: Domestics Down, But Not Out 汽车销量：国产车下降，接近拐点
We’ve seen a mini flood of data come out over the past week from China’s auto makers, as they release January sales that show domestic players may finally be turning a corner after a miserable 2011 that saw them lose big market share to international rivals. What I like to call the “big 3” of Chinese domestic brands, Geely (HKEx: 175), Chery and BYD (HKEx: 1211; Shenzhen: 002594) all outpaced the broader market’s 24 percent decline for the month, as overall domestic sales tumbled due to timing of the Lunar New Year this year in January instead of the usual February. (English article) Of the big domestic 3, Chery easily looks the most promising, with sales actually gaining 17.5 percent for the month, making it one of the few non-luxury brands to post a gain. In fact, that figure is for Chery’s total sales, including both domestic and overseas, which is significant as the company has become China’s biggest auto exporter, with exports doubling over last year’s January level to now account for 12 percent of its total sales. Chery’s export drive looks like a smart direction, as its moves to find a foreign joint venture partner at home to boost its domestic sales have been a bit more problematic. Last year the company’s plans to make cars with Japan’s Subaru was rejected by the state planner, and the company’s most recent plan to make luxury cars with Jaguar Land Rover also looks questionable. (previous post) Meantime, Geely and BYD both saw their January sales drop by 16.5 percent and 15 percent, respectively. While it’s never good to see a big drop like that, both figures are still quite a bit better than the broader market’s 24 percent decline, meaning both companies may have finally reversed their downward slide for much of last year. Of course, BYD’s year-ago comparisons are relatively low now after its sales plunged in 2011, and Geely also has a similar advantage. But both companies finally seem to have realized that they need to keep making popular new models to keep their sales growing, with BYD announcing several new models late last year. Of course January is just a single month and things could easily change in the months ahead. But at least based on this early bit of data, 2012 could be the year when Chinese brands finally fight back against the big foreign names and see their market share stabilize.
Bottom line: Big Chinese auto brands could see their share of the domestic market stabilize in 2012, slowing steady gains over the last 2 years by major international car makers.
Related postings 相关文章:
◙ 2 China Car Brands Set for Renaissance? “上海”和“红旗”汽车将重出江湖
◙ Chery Finds Foreign Partner in Jaguar 奇瑞与捷豹路虎联姻前景堪忧
◙ Cars: US, Germany Clobber Japan, Domestic Rivals 美德汽车在华完胜日本和中国车商
