Cars: Less Restrictions and an Interesting Second-Hand Concept 汽车业：缓慢发展或成常态

By newsdoug on June 27, 2011

Beijing looks to halt road congestion There are a couple of interesting items in the media these last few days regarding cars, as automakers look desperately for any good news to jump-start sales that have slowed dramatically as Beijing looks to cool the economy and also ease traffic congestion. In the end, most of the hopes are destined for disappointment, as clearly economic cooling and making big city roads passable are clearly more important for China’s long-term welfare and thus will receive priority. But let’s get to the news. Perhaps most important were media reports late last week saying Beijing, under pressure from automakers alarmed by slowing sales, was considering putting the brakes on a national program to ease congestion by limiting the number of new license plates issued in major cities. (English article) This would follow the introduction of such a system earlier this year in Beijing, which presumably will be copied by other big cities in the near future. Anyone who lives in China knows that traffic in its major cities is near gridlock, thanks in large part to China’s economic incentives that encouraged huge numbers of consumers to buy cars during the global economic crisis. Pressure from automakers may be big, but I’m personally convinced that China has made up its mind on this issue and will push forward with measures to ease congestion on a national basis. In a second interesting tidbit, Volkswagen, in a bid to ease its dependence on new car sales, has just launched a used car-selling business here in China, called Das WeltAuto. (English article) While this concept sounds quite interesting and similar ventures have done quite well in mature markets like the US, I’m convinced it’s destined to stall out quickly in China. The reason is simple: Chinese love new things, and second-hand anything is always an option of last resort.

Bottom line: China’s auto industry is set for a long-term period of slow growth and perhaps even some shrinkage, as Beijing focuses on easing congestion and pollution in its major cities.

过去几天中，媒体报导了几则关於汽车业的趣事儿。汽车制造商们正急切找寻任何可以推动销售的好消息，因中国政府的经济降温举措和缓解交通拥堵的政策令汽车销售大幅下滑。但汽车制造商的多数希望注定会落空，因为很明显，为经济降温和让大城市交通通畅对中国的长期利益更为重要。让我们先看两则新闻。可能最重要的就是媒体上周报导的，受业绩下滑的汽车制造商的压力，中国政府正考虑放宽在全国主要城市限购汽车的政策。今年早些时候，北京开始实施这一政策，想必其他大城市也会在不久的将来如法炮制。生活在中国的人都知道，中国大城市的道路交通经常陷於瘫痪，这在很大程度上要归咎於中国在全球经济危机期间实施的鼓励购车政策。尽管来自汽车制造商的压力可能很大，但我个人认为，中国政府在舒缓道路拥堵的问题上已下定决心，将会在全国范围内继续推行缓解交通压力的举措。第二则趣闻是，为缓解自己对新车销售的依赖，大众汽车刚刚在中国推出了名为Das WeltAuto的二手车销售业务。尽管这个概念听起来很有趣，且类似行动在美国等成熟市场进行得相当顺利，但我相信，这个计划注定会在中国迅速流产。理由很简单：中国人喜欢新东西，买二手货总是下下策。

一句话：因中国政府聚焦于缓解大城市的交通拥堵和环境污染问题，中国的汽车业注定会经历长期的缓慢发展，甚至会出现某些倒退。