Cars: US, Germany Clobber Japan, Domestic Rivals 美德汽车在华完胜日本和中国车商

2011 sales data for 2011 has been trickling out for the past week from the various car makers in China, showing US and German names made big gains last year at the expense of Japanese and domestic rivals, who could face a continued uphill battle in the coming year. General Motors‘ (NYSE: GM) China sales rose 8.3 percent last year to a record 2.55 million vehicles, while Ford (NYSE: F), a later arrival to the market, said its sales grew 7 percent to 519,390 units, according to company statements. (English article) Both figures were about twice the growth rate for the broader market, which is expected to come in at around 4 percent, the slowest in more than a decade as Beijing ended a wide range of incentives that led to a boom in 2009 and 2010, pushing China past the US to become the world’s largest car market. German car makers like Volkswagen (Frankfurt: VOWG) and BMW (Frankfurt: BMWG) also posted strong gains, with Volkswagen’s sales up 14 percent for the year, as they profited from strong demand for luxury models and a broader demand for quality as consumers reined in their spending. Gains by the US and German car makers came at the expense of the Japanese and domestic names, with Toyota (Tokyo: 7203) posting 4 percent growth while Honda (Tokyo: 7267) sales actually fell 4.5 percent, as they struggled with shortages and other operational issues after the big March earthquake in Japan. Meantime, domestic names like Geely (HKEx: 175), Chery and BYD (HKEx: 1211; Shenzhen: 002594), have also struggled to compete with the big global names as the market slows due to their more limited resources and reputation for less dependable quality. Japan’s car makers will most likely bounce back a bit in 2012 as earthquake-related issues recede, and could return to market-level growth rates that will likely be in the single digits this year. But 2012 could provide a much bumpier road ahead for the domestic nameplates, which will continue to lose market share to their strong foreign rivals as competition in the market intensifies.

Bottom line: US and German carmakers will continue to gain share in China’s auto market this year at the expense of domestic names, while Japanese players should see their positions start to stabilize.

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