Bottom line: The collapse of Dangdang’s $1.2 billion sale of itself to HNA shows the deal was most likely fueled by backdoor connections with no grounding in financial reality, and the company will probably be sold ultimately at a much lower price.
Dangdang comes out a lemon after HNA sale collapses
It’s Friday and I’m quite looking forward to the weekend, so I thought I’d indulge myself with a more gossipy post on the latest troubles of e-commerce has-been Dangdang. Anyone looking for good stock tips with this one will probably be somewhat disappointed, since Dangdang was one of a large group of Chinese firms to privatize from New York over the last few years in pursuit of higher valuations by re-listing at home.
A number of companies from that re-listing wave have already re-listed here in China, often with results that bore out the thesis that such a process was well worth the effort. Among those are names like Focus Media (Shenzhen: 002027) and Homeinns (Shanghai: 600258), which are now worth considerably more as China-traded companies than they ever were in New York. Another notable success is WuXi AppTec (Shanghai: 603259), a drug maker that was part of the larger WuXi PharmaTech that de-listed from New York in 2015. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Nio stock is likely to give back most of its huge second day gains over the next couple of weeks, while Meituan-Dianping could debut strongly but will likely stagnate for its first two years as a public company.
Meituan, Nio display surprising strength
It seems that perhaps I was a bit premature earlier this week when I wrote the latest listing by electric vehicle (EV) maker Nio showed investors had lost appetite for money-losing Chinese tech firms. Nio’s stock has actually done quite well in its first two trading days, after a tepid pre-debut reception. And now we’re getting word that money-losing online-to-offline (O2O) services giant Meituan-Dianping has also priced its own mega-offering in Hong Kong at the top of its range.
Such a sudden shift in sentiment seems hard to explain, and I do suspect there may be at least a little manipulation going on behind the scenes. Still, perhaps investors are feeling just a tad more upbeat about Chinese tech these last few days in light of new signs that the US-China trade war may soon ease with new talks scheduled to try to hammer out a deal. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Meituan-Dianping’s IPO is likely to meet with lukewarm reception due to its big losses in several key areas, but could become more attractive over the medium term as it emerges as industry leader in one or two key areas.
Restaurant ratings leader takes IPO orders
As the rest of China continues to fixate on the sex scandal surrounding e-commerce giant JD.com’s (Nasdaq: JD) CEO, I thought I would end the week on a less controversial subject with a look at another blockbuster IPO by online-to-offline services giant Meituan-Dianping. The company has officially filed to make a listing in Hong Kong, and could be one of a growing number of Chinese Internet firms to choose the former British colony over the U.S. following a rule change earlier this year.
That change allowed companies to list in Hong Kong using a dual-class share structure that gives disproportionate voting power to company managers over ordinary shareholders. Previous prohibition of such a structure was the key element that led e-commerce giant Alibaba(NYSE: BABA) to make its own record-breaking IPO in New York instead of Hong Kong in 2014, and no doubt Hong Kong is still smarting over that loss. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: The detention of JD.com’s CEO on sexual misconduct allegations makes for good headline fodder, but is unlikely to have any extra impact on the company’s stock that is already under pressure.
JD CEO questioned over sexual misconduct claims
The Chinese media have been buzzing all weekend over reports that e-commerce giant JD.com’sfounder and CEO Richard Liu was detained by police in the U.S. over sex-based allegations. The story certainly does make for titillating headlines, and will certainly come as a slight embarrassment to JD if and when the company and Liu ever fess up to anything inappropriate.
But from a business perspective, JD probably has bigger fish to fry than a small sex scandal involving Liu, who seems to have a penchant for this kind of thing. The biggest issue for the company is sustained profitability, which has been elusive since its original Nasdaq IPO in 2014. Investor patience is clearly wearing thin towards the company, which has been running mostly on hopes and a few major positive strategic alliances to prop up its shares these last few years. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: An internal petition calling on Google to be more transparent about its plans to return to China represents the first major backlash to the move, but is unlikely to dissuade the company from going ahead.
Google employees question China return
When the news first broke a couple of weeks ago that Google(Nasdaq: GOOG) was planning a return to China’s search market, many predicted that western sources would be quick to criticize the plan, even though few voices have actually spoken out so far. Fast forward a couple of weeks, when we are hearing the first sounds of what’s likely to become a sea of protests if and when the company actually makes its China search homecoming.
Perhaps not too surprisingly, the first salvo in the storm of protest that could soon emerge is coming from within Google itself, with word that employees are circulating a petition raising questions about the reported move. (English article) This kind of internal debate could be especially troubling, since the last thing that Google wants is an uprising within its own ranks at such a delicate time. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Tencent’s sudden pulling of a popular game just days after its release shows no one is exempt from Beijing’s recent online entertainment clampdown, which could weigh on stocks of related company for the next few months.
Tencent gets wrist slapped by regulator
A new statement from leading online game operator Tencent(HKEx: 700) is dripping with contrition, following the sudden yanking of a new hit game from its platform that apparently didn’t pass muster with the regulator. This latest Tencent news, combined with some downbeat earnings from live broadcasting specialist Huya (Nasdaq: HUYA) and its parent YY (Nasdaq: YY), have cast a chill over Chinese gaming and video stocks, which took a beating in Tuesday trade.
Tencent has been leading the crowd, shedding 3.4 percent on Tuesday and down another 3.2 percent in early trade on Wednesday. Those two declines have collectively wiped out more than $4 billion in market value from one of the world’s most valuable Internet companies. The bloodbath was felt among the broader realm of Chinese companies that provide any form of video content over the Internet, be it games, live broadcasting or even traditional moves and TV shows. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: iQiyi’s establishment of a new sports joint venture and the venture’s subsequent 500 million yuan in funding point to a measured expansion for its premium content business, which will be key to its future success.
iQiyi in sports joint venture
I’m being just a bit coy with today’s headline by suggesting that a new sports programming joint venture by online video site iQiyi (Nasdaq: IQ) resembles a similar expansion by disgraced former rival LeEco(Shenzhen: 300104). But the fact of the matter is that these two particular moves do look somewhat similar, even though I have far more respect for iQiyi than LeEco, for reasons that I’ll detail shortly.
Let’s begin by jumping right in with the news, which has iQiyi, whose main backer is online search leader Baidu(Nasdaq: BIDU), announcing the formation of a sports programming joint venture called Beijing Xin’ai Sport Media. (company announcement) iQiyi is partnering with Super Sports Media, a sports marketing company set up in 2010. As part of the deal, Super Sports Media will change its name to iQiyi Sports, implying this company is basically throwing its lot in with the larger iQiyi. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: A new report on Google’s plan to launch a new China search engine within the next year looks credible, and underscores the company’s decision to put the market’s big potential ahead of the negative backlash such a move will bring.
Google prepares to enter eye of China storm
A story in a publication called the Intercept is making big waves in China, saying search giant Google(Nasdaq: GOOG) is preparing a major about-face on its decision to leave the country’s large but highly controlled search market. (English article) While I’ve never heard of this particular publication, the level of detail it contains appears to show it’s credible, which is probably why most major western media are running reports based on the story.
In short, the story says Google has quietly been developing a China-specific version of its search engine that will adhere to Beijing’s strict rules for self-censorship, and has code-named the project Dragonfly. Google previously operated such a search engine in China, but famously pulled out of the market in 2010 after deciding it didn’t want to adhere to those self-policing policies that require removal of all links to sensitive subjects. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Facebook and Google’s latest micro-moves into China reflect their longer term efforts to get permission to launch major services in the market, though it’s unclear if they will get such a green-light anytime soon.
Facebook, Google take new baby steps in China
You have to give China-challenged Internet giants Facebook (Nasdaq: FB) and Google(Nasdaq: GOOG) an “e” for effort. Both companies have popped into the China headlines over the last two weeks for micro-moves into the world’s largest Internet market, including the latest news that Facebook plans to set up a company in Hangzhou that will become an “innovation hub”.
The Facebook news comes just about a week after Google confirmed that it has launched a new artificial intelligence (AI) game in China on a platform operated by local Internet giant Tencent(HKEx: 700). Both of these moves are miniscule in the big scheme of things, especially for companies of Google’s and Facebook’s size. But they do reflect the kind of baby steps, some might also say groveling, that such corporate giants will need to take to get a hold in the world’s largest Internet market where they are now mostly denied permission to operate. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Baidu’s withdrawal from Brazil reflects a broader inability of Chinese companies to succeed overseas due to their different practices and local wariness about their ability to protect user privacy.
Baidu says bye-bye to Brazil
In what is probably coming as a surprise to no one, media reports are saying that search leader Baidu(Nasdaq: BIDU) is pulling out of Brazil. This would represent the company’s latest failure abroad, and is really part of a broader string of failures not only for the company but China’s internet sector in general. This particular group is quite good at milking the China market for all it’s worth, but then being unable to replicate its success in other markets.
There are lots of reasons for the inability of China’s Internet companies to succeed outside their home market. One is simply inexperience. But another is really the direct result of Beijing’s determination to set up what almost amounts to a parallel Internet in China that in some ways is identical to the global Internet but in others is very different. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Tencent’s WeGame could stand a 50-50 chance of success in moving abroad, since the company already has a proven track record in games and will face relatively low privacy protection concerns due to the less-sensitive nature of gaming.
Tencent takes its gaming global
Despite their huge success at home, none of China’s big Internet companies has ever scored a major victory outside its home market, despite a number of low-profile attempts. Social networking giant Tencent (HKEx: 700) is about to become the latest to take a stab at the market, with word that the company will soon launch an international edition of its gaming platform called WeGame.
There are a number of reasons why Chinese Internet companies have yet to really crack any major foreign markets, underscoring the uphill battle Tencent will face. The largest is probably well-established competition in most places, both from local players as well as global giants like Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN) and Google (Nasdaq: GOOG). The second biggest element is probably trust, since many foreigners are a bit suspicious of these Chinese companies and their ability to protect customer privacy. Read Full Post…
