Bottom line: Tencent’s latest plan to invest $1 billion in Meituan-Dianping looks like an awkward bid for control of the newly merged company, which could attract a rival bid from Alibaba.
Tencent as awkward suitor
Social networking giant Tencent(HKEx: 700) has never been very good at public relations, unlike slicker Internet rivals Alibaba(NYSE: BABA) and Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU), whose founders are much better at wooing the media and investors. That refrain is ringing true once again with the latest mega-investment headlines, which appear to show Tencent making an awkward bid for the newly formed group buying giant created by the merger between former rivals Dianping and Meituan.
In fact, Tencent isn’t really bidding for the new company outright, but appears to be voicing its future intent by offering the merged company $1 billion in new funding. Such a funding would boost Tencent’s current equity in the merged company, in which it already holds a stake following its purchase of 20 percent of Dianping last year for $400 million. Such a bid would seem like a direct challenge to Alibaba, which also holds a relatively large stake in the newly merged company through its participation in a $300 million funding round for Meituan last year. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: A new round of buyouts for US-listed Chinese firms is being greeted with skepticism due to China’s volatile economy, and could offer a good buying opportunity for investors with strong appetite for risk.
Investors dump E-House shares after new buyout offer
In what looks like an emerging new trend, investors are dumping shares of online real estate services firm E-House (NYSE: EJ) after it announced a new lower offer price for its shares under a privatization bid first announced in June. This lowering of the price doesn’t come as a huge surprise, since US-listed Chinese shares have tumbled since many first announced privatization bids in the first half of the year with an eye to re-listing back in China.
But what does come as a surprise is US investor reaction to the new offer. In the case of E-House, the company’s shares fell more than 5 percent after it announced the new buyout price, which still represented a nearly 7 percent premium to the stock’s last close. Normally one would expect the shares to rise after such an announcement to approach the new bid price. But in this case the sell-off seems to reflect investor skepticism that the new deal will ever get completed, even at the lower price. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: The latest spat between Alibaba and JD over behind-the-scenes strong-arm tactics will quickly subside following JD’s filing of a formal complaint, as both come under government pressure to clean up their sites of counterfeit goods.
JD accuses Alibaba of strong-arm tactics
In what’s quickly becoming an annual ritual of fall, a war of words has broken out between e-commerce leaders Alibaba(NYSE: BABA) and JD.com(Nasdaq: JD) in the run-up to China’s November 11 Singles Day, the world’s biggest online spending extravaganza. This year JD has accused its larger rival of pressuring third-party online merchants to limit their Singles Day promotions to Alibaba’s own websites, effectively freezing out other sites like JD’s where those same merchants may also operate other online stores.
At the same time, Alibaba, JD and their many smaller e-commerce peers are coming under fire from a new Beijing report saying that more than 40 percent of goods sold online in China are either fake or of poor quality. This new report looks similar to another one that came out early this year uncovering rampant piracy among Chinese e-commerce firms. This time no specific companies are named in the latest media reports. The report earlier this year named many specific companies, and cited Alibaba’s popular Taobao mall as one of the most egregious marketplaces for trade in counterfeit goods. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Baidu’s new upscale online shopping mall looks more focused and well designed than its earlier e-commerce initiatives, but could have a difficult time finding an audience due to stiff competition.
Baidu tries e-commerce again with upscale mall
Online search leader Baidu(Nasdaq: BIDU) is hoping the third time is the charm for its drive into e-commerce, with the formal launch of its new online mall with a distinctly foreign flavor targeting high-end shoppers. I’ve followed Baidu for a long time now, and the company certainly has a poor track record in e-commerce and more broadly for homegrown initiatives like this latest one called Baidu Mall.
But that said, the company has found more success recently by buying assets outside its core online search area, and then giving them access to its own vast cash and other resources to help them quickly gain market share. Perhaps it’s hoping to use that strategy as well for the newly launched Baidu Mall, even though the platform itself seems to be Baidu’s own creation rather than an acquisition. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: An aggressive new share buy-back and tie-up between its Qunar unit and former rival Ctrip could indicate a new pragmatism from Baidu chief Robin Li, signaling a potential new era of more realistic spending on its emerging businesses.
Baidu jumps on mixed report
Investors hoping for new signs of restrained spending in the latest results from Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) were disappointed, as China’s leading search engine continued a recent spending frenzy that has sharply eroded profits. But that didn’t stop those same investors from bidding up Baidu’s shares after release of its third-quarter results, leading me to believe they’re hoping the spending frenzy may soon start to subside. We saw some signs that may be happening earlier this week, following a landmark tie-up between Baidu’s Qunar (Nasdaq: QUNR) online travel site and former archrival Ctrip (Nasdaq: CTRP).
Despite its frenetic expansion outside its core search business over the last year, Baidu remains largely a one-trick pony, deriving most of its revenue from its core online search business. It has found some success in some newer areas, such as online video, travel services and group buying. But the reality is that those businesses are still quite small in terms of revenue contribution, and all are losing big money as Baidu allows them to spend heavily in pursuit of market share. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: SouFun should be commended for its proactive and open approach to a recent crackdown on internal corruption, which could provide some potential upside to its shares after negative publicity subsides.
SouFun clamps down on corruption
Real estate services provider SouFun (NYSE: SFUN) has become the latest Chinese Internet firm to join a national anti-corruption campaign, with its issue of a slightly cryptic statement that looks related to a scandal that rocked the company earlier this month. That scandal saw media report that SouFun had fired a number of salespeople over vague allegations of inflating their business. (previous post)
More than 2 weeks after those reports broke, SouFun has just issued a statement outlining a recent internal probe that netted an unspecified number of employees who were engaged in corrupt practices. I have to commend SouFun for taking the action and also being relatively open about what it’s doing, even though this particular statement isn’t extremely clear and was almost certainly prompted by the earlier reports. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Lack of revenue figures in a wealth of new data on WeChat indicates the service continues to lose big money, and could become a drag on Tencent’s profits if commercialization efforts don’t accelerate soon.
WeChat: Where’s the revenue?
Social networking giant Tencent(HKEx: 700) has just released a wealth of information about its wildly popular WeChat, including a headline figure that the wildly popular mobile messaging service now has a whopping 570 million active users. But missing from the wealth of new information are any meaningful monetary figures, reflecting the slow progress that Tencent is making in commercializing a service whose huge popularity also means its quite costly to operate.
People love to talk about WeChat and how popular it is, but you see far less discussion about how much money Tencent is losing on the service. There’s even less discussion of when it might become profitable. But all that said, Tencent is such a cash-rich company it can easily afford to keep pouring money into WeChat for the next decade or more until the day when profits finally come. The big risks, of course, are that investors may not be that patient, and that newer and more popular services could come along. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: The equity tie-up between Ctrip and Qunar is likely to be an uneasy one driven by necessity rather than desire to work together, and stands a 50-50 chance of ending in divorce.
Ctrip, Qunar get hitched … sort of
The year 2015 will go down in Chinese Internet history as the year of the uneasy partnership, as several pairs of former foes suddenly merged even as their outspoken heads refused to work together. The latest of those unions is seeing former bitter rivals Ctrip (Nasdaq: CTRP) and Qunar(Nasdaq: CTRP) get together in a quasi marriage that qualifies as the largest and also strangest union to date.
This particular union isn’t even really a true marriage, and instead is a very big equity swap that will see Qunar’s controlling stakeholder Baidu(Nasdaq: BIDU) get 25 percent of Ctrip. Ctrip will get a larger chunk of Qunar on a percentage basis, ending up with 45 percent voting interest in its former rival. (Baidu announcement; English article; Chinese article) Like the other odd marriages this year, this latest one looks set for troubles, and could stand a very real chance of divorce. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: High-flying video player maker Baofeng represents the irrational sentiment now pervading China’s stock markets, and its recent layoffs hint at underlying troubles that will undermine the company over the next year.
Baofeng layoffs hint at troubles
When the history books are written, video player maker Baofeng Technology (Shenzhen: 300431) could well become the poster child for China’s version of the dot-com bubble that saw the country’s stock markets soar and then crash in 2014 and 2015. In the latest twist on Baofeng’s story, the company has reportedly just laid off 30 percent of its workforce, in what looks like signs of major problems.
But rather than tumble on the reports, the company’s stock actually rose by the daily 10 percent limit in the latest trading session at the end of last week. It’s not completely unheard of for companies’ stocks to rise after layoffs are disclosed, even though the job cuts really do look like a sign of major troubles brewing at Baofeng. But in China, no one really seems to ever read beyond the headlines, and often they don’t even bother reading the headlines at all. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: STO’s backdoor listing and Wumart’s pending de-listing reflect the rise in China of e-commerce, which is boosting delivery companies like STO and undermining traditional retailers like Wumart.
STO delivers back-door IPO
A couple of listing stories are shining a spotlight on China’s rapidly changing retail landscape, which is seeing consumers migrate en masse to e-commerce from traditional shops. The e-commerce boom has fueled a parallel explosion in demand for delivery services, and now one of the largest private couriers, STO, is getting set to make a backdoor listing. On the other side of the shopping aisle are struggling traditional retailers like Wumart (HKEx: 1025), which is reportedly getting ready to abandon its longtime Hong Kong listing through a privatization bid.
This pair of stories also reflects a few other emerging trends for publicly traded Chinese companies, including a growing preference for domestic listings compared with an earlier one for offshore IPOs in places like Hong Kong, New York and Singapore. Shenzhen in particular is fast emerging as a hot spot for high-growth companies to list, thanks to rapid growth in the 5-year-old Nasdaq-style ChiNext board. That trend is likely to continue with plans for a similar board in Shanghai, which could reportedly launch as soon as next year. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: A growing alliance between JD.com and Tencent could start to seriously challenge Alibaba’s dominance of China e-commerce in the next 2 years, as the rivals use the upcoming November 11 Singles Day to showcase their prowess.
JD joins Nov 11 courtship of online shoppers
This year’s November 11 Singles Day shopping extravaganza is shaping up as a guerrilla courtship of Chinese online shoppers by the nation’s 2 e-commerce leaders, as each vies for supremacy on a date that’s become the world’s busiest for online buying. Just days after leading operator Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) announced its own grand plans to seduce shoppers, rival JD.com (Nasdaq: JD) has come out with its own counter scheme that aims to court China’s hordes or singles in an alliance drawing on its growing ties with leading social networking (SNS) operator Tencent (HKEx: 700).
The stakes in this brewing war are huge. Last year alone, Alibaba reported 278 million orders worth $9.3 billion around the promotion that it created on the November 11 holiday, which represents the epitome of singledom due to its numerical representation as 11-11, or four 1’s. JD declined to give a sales value for its orders last year, but said it posted 14 million orders, which would translate to far more modest but still significant sum of about $500 million worth of merchandise sold based on Alibaba’s rate. Read Full Post…
