Bottom line: Rallies for Renren and 500.com stock on positive news are likely to be short lived due to both companies’ limited prospects, while 55Tuan’s IPO is likely to see more delays and its shares are unlikely to debut next week
500.com prepares to go back online
As we head into the long weekend for the Easter and Tomb Sweeping holidays, a string of developments are providing a bit of cheer to shareholders of embattled social networking site Renren (NYSE: RENN) and online lottery ticket seller 500.com (NYSE: WBAI). Renren’s good news comes in a newly announced Dutch auction for its stock, a variation of traditional share buybacks. At 500.com, the good news comes in the form of chatter that Beijing will soon roll out new policies that pave the way for resumption of the online lottery ticket sales that are the company’s main business.
Bottom line: A round of April Fool’s Day pranks by China’s Internet companies marks a nice break from their usual cut-throat tactics, while the soaring valuation for a newly created taxi app leader looks more typical for the sector.
Internet firms get into April Fool’s spirit
It’s a relatively quiet news day as we head into April, so I thought I’d take a break from all the latest crackdowns and controversies by looking at some of the clever pranks played by China’s top Internet names on April Fool’s Day. At the same time, one company that’s in no fooling mood is a new taxi app giant that’s being formed with a merger of the 2 top players, and could soon receive an impressive $8.75 billion valuation after a new investment.
These 2 particular headlines don’t really have much in common, since one is largely playful and meant to be fun while the other involves the far more serious business of determining a company’s value. The April Fool’s stories are a nice break from the usual competition and wars of words that are standard fare on China’s Internet. By comparison, bidding up valuations to inflated levels like we’re now seeing with the pending merger of DidiDache and Kuaidi Dache has become standard fare on China’s Internet, as investors bet big on future growth in the market. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: 55Tuan’s IPO plan has a less than 50 percent chance of succeeding as a deadline looms, while Jiayuan.com is likely to de-list later this year after its investors accept a so-so buyout offer.
Clock ticks down on 55Tuan IPO plan
Time is quickly running out for a planned IPO by group buying site 55Tuan, as a deadline approaches that will nullify the company’s application earlier this year for a New York listing. Meantime, time is also running out for another Chinese Internet company, Jiayuan.com (Nasdaq: DATE), as a private equity firm launches a bid to privatize the neglected online dating site.
Both 55Tuan and Jiayuan represent a group of decidedly second-tier Chinese Internet companies that probably would have been acquired long ago in a more mature western market. But in the less developed Chinese market, the pair have managed to stay independent. The second-tier status of such firms often leads investors to question their longer term viability, dampening enthusiasm for their stocks when they list overseas. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: ChemChina might be advised to maintain Pirelli as an independent unit and limit the size of an IPO if succeeds in buying the Italian tire maker and decides to re-list the business.
WH Group, AMC IPOs offer lessons for ChemChina
The headlines are buzzing today with word that state-run behemoth ChemChina may try to re-list Pirelli (Milan: PC) after it purchases the Italian tire maker, which got me to thinking about how the China factor might affect such an IPO. In theory at least, investors might get quite excited about a company they once disdained after its purchase by a Chinese buyer, due to hopes for lower costs and greater profits. But a look at 2 recent cases of major US firms that were acquired by Chinese buyers, then re-listed, shows the reality can vary widely and that a Chinese owner isn’t necessarily a panacea for an ailing overseas company. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Alibaba, Tencent and Ping An’s online insurance joint venture should easily find backers for its first major fund-raising, and could even exceed its $8 billion valuation target due to strong demand.
Zhong An targets $1 bln in new funds
This year’s list of major private funding raising by high-tech firms continues, with word that an online insurance joint venture involving 2 of China’s biggest Internet names is seeking to raise a hefty $1 billion in its first funding round. This particular venture certainly has a strong pedigree, as it’s backed by Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) and Tencent (HKEx: 700), China’s 2 leading Internet companies with a combined market value of nearly $400 billion. The pair are joined in the venture by Ping An (HKEx: 2318; Shanghai: 601318), China’s second largest insurer and also one of the most aggressive players in its space. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Chinese Internet stocks are likely to see a soft landing after a correction period in the first half of the year, with leaders and high-growth second tier players likely to experience a rebound in the second half.
China Internet stocks headed for soft landing
A new scorecard is casting a worrisome spotlight on the bumper crop of Chinese Internet firms that listed last year, pointing out that more than half are now trading below their IPO prices. The sagging prices continue a trend that I pointed out in my IPO scorecard at the end of last year. That trend has seen shares of many New York-listed Internet firms come back to their offering levels or lower as investors pocketed profits from strong post-IPO rises. (previous post) But rather than label this a reason for worry, I would argue instead this broader wave represents a rationalization of the market that will ultimately see the best-performing names rewarded and the money losers languish. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Sogou is likely to list in the second half of the year, but will get a lukewarm reception from investors due to its status as a solid second-tier player without hopes of ever becoming a sector leader.
Sogou eyes H2 IPO
Some 3 months into the New Year, we’re still waiting for the first New York IPO by a Chinese Internet company after a blockbuster year in 2014. Now we’re getting word of a listing that could come in the second half, with news that portal stalwart Sohu (Nasdaq: SOHU) is planning an IPO for its decade-old Sougou search engine in that time frame.
The offering looks very so-so, as Sougou has failed to gain much traction despite its status as one of China’s oldest search players. More broadly speaking, we can probably expect to see more of this kind of ho-hum IPO from second-tier Chinese Internet firms for the rest of the year, since the most exciting players listed during last year’s surge in new offerings. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Legend’s Hong Kong IPO this year will attract moderate interest and raise more than $2 billion, while Mango TV could seek up to $800 million in new private funding later this year en route to a potential Hong Kong IPO as soon as 2017.
Mango TV gets funding from China Mobile
Two big fund-raising stories are in the headlines today, casting a spotlight on what could become 2 major IPOs in the pipeline over the next 2 years. The more advanced deal has media reporting that Legend Holdings, parent of PC giant Lenovo (HKEx: 992), is aiming to raise a hefty $3 billion when it goes public later this year in Hong Kong. The second deal has Mango TV, the online video unit of the commercially savvy broadcaster Hunan TV, raising a cool 1 billion yuan ($161 million) in its first private funding round. Such a sum is quite large for a first round of outside fund raising, and the acceptance of private investors hints that Hunan intends to build Mango into an attractive IPO candidate with strong prospects in the online video space. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Orient Securities IPO should price and debut strongly on strong sentiment towards brokerages, which should perform well over the short- to medium-term if China’s broader economy continues to slow.
Orient Securities IPO draws strong interest
Despite new uncertainties about their future, Chinese brokerages continue to remain a hot ticket as investors bet they’ll benefit from a booming domestic stock market and new business from a pilot program allowing more foreigners to buy Chinese stocks. That’s my assessment following word that the biggest domestic IPO since 2011, from Orient Securities, has been massively oversubscribed by a factor of more than 90. Put another way, some $150 billion worth of investor money is chasing the $1.6 billion offering, meaning barely 1 in 10 investors will be able to get any shares. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Dianping’s bigger-than-expected fund-raising underscores its popularity among investors, and could pressure it to make an IPO worth $1 billion or more this year to capitalize on positive market sentiment.
Dianping closes $850 mln funding
China’s online group buying space could be closer to getting its first IPO, with word that Dianping, one of the industry’s 2 leaders, has just raised a whopping $850 million in its fifth funding round. The massive funding has actually been in the works since late last year, but kept growing as more investors clamored for a piece of this hot company. The move sends the latest signal that Dianping may be eying an IPO later this year that could raise up to $1 billion or more.
Word of the funding comes as a more advanced IPO plan has gone missing from smaller rival 55Tuan, which was hoping to become China’s first publicly listed group buying site. 55Tuan made a public filing for a New York IPO back in January, and a later filing indicated it planned to sell its shares and begin trading on February 25. But that date has come and gone with no listing, and there’s still no word on the reason for the delays more than 2 weeks later. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: A mega IPO by Postal Savings Bank next year is likely to attract little or no interest from private investors, while an upcoming IPO by 55Tuan could do slightly better but will still get only a lukewarm reception.
55Tun misses pricing target date
A couple of unattractive IPOs are in the headlines as China gets back to work after the Lunar New Year holiday, led by a massive plan by China’s Postal Savings Bank to raise up to $25 billion as soon as next year. While that plan may be a year or more away, a more advanced listing by group-buying site 55Tuan has failed to price its shares by a previously announced target date, leading some to speculate that the deal is running into trouble. Neither of these deals looks very exciting to me, and I suspect they won’t attract much interest from private investors either. Read Full Post…
