Bottom line: Vipshop looks like a strong bet due to its position as a focused e-commerce leader among consumers who are most interested in bargains and less concerned about famous brands.
Vipshop trives on bargain focus
So far this series on my favorite Chinese stocks has focused on big names like Tencent(HKEx: 700) and Fosun International (HKEx: 656), which are sector leaders with strong, focused management. But hiding behind these giants are a field of lesser-known second- and third-largest players in their sectors offering even better growth potential because they are far smaller and at an earlier stage in their development.
One such name is Vipshop (NYSE: VIPS), which has carved out a place as China’s third largest e-commerce company by honing in on shoppers who are more interested in bargains and less concerned with big-name brands. While some may call this area a niche, it’s really more of a focus since it encompasses quite a large segment of the Chinese shopping population. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Hard Rock’s new plan for China resorts and restaurants will do well due to its focus on young, wealthy hipsters, and could also auger a broader move by second-tier global hotel brands into the market.
Hard Rock coming to China
China’s hotel sector has just crossed a sort of milestone, with word that Hard Rock, a well-known but decidedly second-tier western brand, is dipping its toe into the market. Hard Rock’s move comes more than a decade after most of the world’s top hotel operators entered China, and roughly coincides with a recent push by global names like Marriott (NYSE: MAR) and Accor (Paris: AC) into the middle- and lower ends of the market.
Hard Rock has announced plans to build 3 hotel resorts in the cities of Dalian, Shenzhen and Haikou, and additional plans to open Hard Rock restaurants that are more familiar to many consumers. (English article) Such a plan looks a bit late, but could actually be well-timed since most of these resorts won’t be complete for a few years after the market has absorbed a recent glut in new property building. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Tencent’s sharp focus, strong management and savvy strategic tie-ups make it China’s best Internet investment for the long term, though its shares may feel some short-term pressure due to high valuation.
Tencent builds empire on SNS
This week the series on my favorite Chinese stocks takes us to the “Big 3” of Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU), Alibaba(NYSE: BABA) and Tencent(HKEx: 700) , sometimes called the BAT super trio because they’re the country’s biggest Internet companies by quite a large margin. I’ll end the suspense right away by saying my favorite among these 3 is Tencent, the only one that’s listed in Hong Kong.
I’ll look briefly soon at some financials comparing this trio, but will openly admit my Tencent attraction is less based on market fundamentals and instead is tied to its corporate personality that differs quite a bit from the others. These “personalities” are a direct reflection of each company’s founder, since all 3 are relatively young and the founder of each is still quite clearly in charge. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Meituan-Dianping’s IPO is likely to raise more than $2 billion and should get a strong reception when it comes, most likely by mid-year in New York, while ZTO Express’ $1-$2 billion IPO will get a cooler reception due to its steep losses.
Meituan-Dianping eyes IPO
After a quiet start to the year, the market for offshore Chinese IPOs is slowing coming to life with word of 2 listing plans that should both top the $1 billion mark. One would see leading group buying site Meituan-Dianping list, most likely in New York or possibly Hong Kong, in a deal that would probably raise at least $2 billion. The second is also Internet-related, and would see parcel delivery giant ZTO Express also raise up to $2 billion in a New York IPO.
Perhaps not surprisingly, both of these companies are losing money despite their position as industry leaders. That’s because competition has been cut-throat in both spaces, especially in the parcel delivery business that supports China’s booming e-commerce sector. Meituan and Dianping were also locked in heated competition before they merged late last year to face the current company, which still faces stiff competition from 2 of China’s leading Internet companies, Baidu(Nasdaq: BIDU) and Alibaba (NYSE: BABA). Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Alibaba is likely to enter talks to buy a strategic stake in Groupon or even make a bid for the entire company, following its disclosure that it has purchased 5.6 percent of the US company in the open market.
Alibaba buys Groupon stake
What exactly was leading Chinese e-commerce company Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) thinking when it quietly purchased 5.6 percent of Groupon (Nasdaq: GRPN) shares on the open market without informing the faded US group buying pioneer? That’s the question that will be making the rounds this week, following the surprise disclosure of Alibaba’s purchase that Groupon only learned about through a regulatory filing.
Of course the most intriguing possibility is that Alibaba could be weighing a bid to acquire Groupon completely, which wouldn’t be that preposterous for reasons I’ll explain shortly. Other media are putting a less aggressive spin on the move, saying that Alibaba simply hopes to learn from Groupon’s group buying skills that first propelled it to fame about 6 years ago. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: A growing strategy by retailers like Macy’s and Suning to target Chinese tourists traveling abroad looks smart, drawing on Chinese consumers’ growing taste for imported goods and distrust of domestically made products.
Macy’s targets Chinese shoppers in US
Traditional retailing giant Macy’s (NYSE: M) is rapidly discovering a new fondness for China, with its announcement of a series of special promotions at its main US department stores targeting Chinese traveling abroad for the Lunar New Year. Macy’s new move comes just a half year after the company announced a major new China joint venture aimed at tapping the nation’s booming markets for traditional retailing and e-commerce.
At the same time, domestic Chinese retailing powerhouse Suning (Shenzhen: 002024) is targeting similar consumers traveling over the holiday to Japan, offering its own promotions using a local Japanese electronics chain it purchased last year. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: An internal review that netted a Youku Tudou executive for suspected abuse of position was likely linked to the company’s pending purchase by Alibaba, and could be followed by more similar internal actions by China’s big tech companies this year.
Internal probe nets Youku VP
E-commerce leader Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) is quickly learning that major M&A can be a tricky business, as 2 of its largest purchases deliver headaches with the exposure of problems at acquired companies. First there were a series of accounting irregularities and a criminal investigation against an official at its Alibaba Pictures (HKEx: 1060) unit purchased in 2014, and now newly acquired online video unit Youku Tudou (NYSE: YOKU) is providing yet more headaches.
The latest problems are related to a single executive, with reports that a company vice president named Lu Fanxi has been taken away for questioning by police on suspicion of using his position for personal gain. This kind of activity is quite common in smaller Chinese companies, and Alibaba itself uncovered similarly inappropriate behavior by salespeople and fraudulent merchants at its B2B marketplace unit in 2011. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Alibaba’s shares are likely to remain under pressure through the rest of this year as it enters a new phase of slower growth and its stock faces short-term pressure from short sellers.
Investors unimpressed by Alibaba results
E-commerce leader Alibaba(NYSE: BABA) was hoping for praise and kudos when it posted quarterly results that beat market expectations, but instead is receiving a cold shoulder from Wall Street bears who are betting against the company. That’s the bottom line, as investors dumped Alibaba shares after the company reported quarterly revenue that was slightly ahead of expectations.
At the same time, other media reports say that Alibaba is on the cusp of a deal to sell its stake in leading Chinese group buying site Meituan-Dianping for around $900 million. This particular sale was reported previously, and thus isn’t huge news to investors. Still, many are probably disappointed that Alibaba is yielding this important piece of the China online-to-offline (O2O) services market to rival Tencent (HKEx: 700), which will now become Meituan-Dianping’s undisputed strategic partner. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Wal-Mart’s discussion of plans to open 115 new China stores and several new local initiatives look like mostly PR to show its commitment to the market, following its announcement of a major global overhaul earlier this month.
Wal-Mart discusses commitment to China
Just a week after announcing a major retrenchment for its global empire, retailing giant Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) is saying it will continue to open new stores at a brisk pace in China. The vast and somewhat unique China market also looks set to become a testing ground for new concepts, with Wal-Mart discussing plans to open its first shopping center format and also to expand its cross-border e-commerce business in the country.
The latest developments are discussed in a local media interview with a top Wal-Mart China executive, which is probably timed to quash any potential buzz that the company is planning a similar retrenchment in China to the global plan announced earlier this month. That plan saw Wal-Mart announce it will close 269 stores this year, representing just over 2 percent of its global count of 11,600. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Alibaba’s stock will come under pressure through the middle of the year due to short selling interest tied to China’s correcting stock markets, but the shares should see some upside in the second half.
Bears pile into Alibaba
In what looks like a case of history repeating itself, the bears are suddenly piling into shares of leading e-commerce company Alibaba (NYSE: BABA), with investors shorting the stock at levels not seen since late 2014. Company watchers will recall that the last time Alibaba bears were so active was shortly after its record-breaking IPO, when the stock was soaring as legions of short-term investors traded shares in pursuit of quick profits.
That initial post-IPO hype is now well in the past, and so are most of the lock-up periods that were posing some potential downside to the stock in its first year of trading. That means that rather than focusing on company-specific issues, this time the short sellers are betting on something much bigger: a prolonged downturn in China’s economy. That would affect the entire retail sector, including Alibaba’s core e-commerce business. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Toys “R” Us’ big China expansion plan contrasts with pull-backs and departures for many major western retailers in the tough market, and could be aimed at generating buzz in the run-up to a potential IPO.
Toys “R” Us steps up China expansion
China’s economy may be headed for a rapid slowdown that casts a chill on the retail sector, but don’t tell that to US veteran Toys “R” Us. The retailer whose name is synonymous with children and fun has disclosed it’s planning an ambitious China build-up that will see it increase its local store count by 30 percent this year, even as other major western retailers are closing shops and even leaving the difficult market.
All that leads to the question of whether Toys “R” Us really intends to open so many new stores at a time of uncertainty, or whether this China toy story is part hype with other motivations. If the latter is the case, this particular story could be designed at least partly to generate some excitement around an otherwise boring traditional retailer, as it gets set to potentially re-list in New York more than a decade after being privatized. Read Full Post…
