Bottom line: China Telecom and Unicom are likely to launch aggressive 4G promotions over the Lunar New Year holiday, sparking a recruiting war that could see up to a third of China’s mobile users on 4G service by the end of 2015.
4G blitz to charge up Year of the Sheep
A flurry of telecoms stories are buzzing through the airwaves on this last trading day of the Lunar Year in China, setting the stage for a turbocharged Year of the Sheep that should see the nation’s 3 telcos embark on a massive free-for-all to sign up subscribers for their new 4G networks. That certainly doesn’t sound too good for profits, since all 3 telcos will be spending heavily on both promotions and infrastructure to build their new networks. But investors could still get excited about these 3 telcos if they can get users to boost their spending, reversing a years-old trend that has seen average user spending steadily decrease. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Rumors of a China Telecom-Unicom merger are probably false since they would leave just 2 big players in the market, though the talk could reflect the regulator’s frustration at the continued dominance of China Mobile.
Regulator hangs up on telecoms merger rumors
Everyone else is buzzing today about rumors that the smaller of China’s 3 telcos would merge, so I feel obliged to add my 2 cents to the discussion, even though the deal has been denied by one of the companies and the industry regulator. Of course this kind of denial isn’t very meaningful in China, where companies will vehemently deny a rumor one day and then the next day announce a deal that showed the talk was indeed correct. But in this case, a merger of China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA) and China Unicom (HKEx: 763; NYSE: CHU) really doesn’t make much sense for a number of reasons. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Qualcomm’s settlement of a Chinese antitrust probe shows Beijing will be more open when taking similar actions against foreign firms, though it’s unlikely to take such a conciliatory stance with domestic companies.
Qualcomm settles China antitrust probe
After several months of reading reports that China was on the verge of wrapping up its antitrust probe of US telecoms chip giant Qualcomm (Nasdaq: QCOM), I’m happy to report that a landmark settlement of the deal has finally come. Headline writers will inevitably focus on the eye-catching figure of nearly $1 billion, which is the record amount that Qualcomm has agreed to pay to settle a probe that has lasted more than a year. But I’m most impressed by the unprecedented atmosphere of conciliation that came with this particular negotiation, which marks a huge change for Beijing regulators who are used to making decisions unilaterally with limited or no input from affected companies. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: China’s new rules for technology manufacturers over cybersecurity concerns will erupt into a war of words between Beijing and the west this year, and could result in one or more formal complaints to the WTO.
Western firms respond to tough cybersecurity restrictions
After clashing for much of 2014 over a series of antitrust probes that seemed to target big multinationals, China and the west look set for a new showdown in 2015 over broadening rules by Beijing aimed at protecting national security. The growing clash saw the foreign companies, many from the US, take the unusual step of formally complaining last week over new Beijing rules that they complain are increasingly intrusive and opaque. Beijing fired back by saying the rights of foreign technology firms would be protected in accordance with Chinese law. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: China could end 2015 with up to 450 million 4G subscribers, with telcos, 4G smartphone makers and mobile-focused Internet firms most likely to benefit from the massive migration.
China Telecom targets 100 mln 4G users
China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA) has just become the final of China’s big 3 telcos to announce an extremely aggressive subscriber target for its new 4G service, confirming my earlier prediction that the nation could end 2015 with as many as 450 million 4G users if everyone meets their goals. If they do reach those targets, it would represent a remarkable transformation that would see around one-third of the nation’s mobile users switching to 4G service by year end. That could provide a bonanza for not only the telcos, but also the smartphone makers and Internet service providers that would also benefit from such a mass migration. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Foreign technology suppliers will complain about new requirements for them to reveal source codes to Beijing for selling to Chinese banks, but will ultimately comply over fears of being shut out of the market.
Beijing to force new security rules on foreign tech
China’s sudden obsession with national security risks posed by foreign technology has taken yet another step forward, with word that Beijing is preparing to place yet more restrictions on foreign firms that supply networking products and services to Chinese banks. As a longtime industry watcher, I need to quickly add my own view that this particular move isn’t really discriminatory against firms like IBM (NYSE: IBM), Cisco (Nasdaq: CSCO) and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), which are likely to feel the biggest effects. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: New data from the telecoms regulator shows that China Telecom outperformed its rivals last year, and could be set for strong growth as it consolidates around its high-speed wireless data business.
China Telecom outpaces rivals in 2014
Just a month after I expressed disappointment at China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA) for its lack of focus in the era of data services, newly released year-end financial data are making me re-think my view. That data appears to portray China Telecom as a company that has made the difficult transformation from a traditional fixed-line operator to a more wireless-focused carrier, meaning it could finally be poised for some strong growth this year as it rolls out a new state-of-the-art 4G network. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: ZTE’s latest preliminary results show the company may have turned a corner in the second half of last year and could be set for a business rebound if it can maintain focus on key new product and service areas.
ZTE turns corner after restructuring
A new profit report from ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) is painting a cautiously upbeat picture about the telecoms giant as it emerges from a difficult period and tries to reposition itself as a specialist in networked systems and devices that talk to each other. The company’s report that its profit for 2014 nearly doubled from a year earlier certainly looks encouraging, though it probably includes many one-time items that make the figures less meaningful. A comparison with its last financial report from the third quarter is more meaningful and also looks mostly encouraging, showing operating profit and revenue growth were picking up even as net profitability appeared to be slowing. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: China and the west should sign an agreement for telecoms networking equipment trade that creates a transparent and fair playing field for fair trade while protecting national security.
Transparency needed in global telecoms trade
A simmering national security standoff between China and the west involving telecoms networks could soon heat up again, with word that China Telecom, the smallest of China’s 3 state-run carriers, is preparing a bid to build a new wireless network in Mexico. Analysts say the US might object to such a Chinese-run network so close to its borders, fearing it could contain backdoors and other hidden features that might accommodate spying by Beijing.
Similar previous concerns have locked Chinese telecoms equipment makers out of the lucrative US market, and cost leading manufacturer Huawei a chance to help build a cutting-edge broadband network in Australia. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: China Mobile’s launch of a new Internet services unit, Migu, is a good and needed move conceptually, but will fail to innovate and succeed due to a bureaucratic corporate culture.
China Mobile launches Migu Internet services unit
I have very mixed feelings on leading telco China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL), which mostly seems like a slow-moving, highly protected state-run behemoth but at times also seems to have some innovative instincts. The company’s new launch of Migu, a unit dedicated to developing Internet content and services, seems to fall in the latter category, and is long overdue. But the launch of Migu is quite late and will have a lot of catching up to do, and is almost certain to be hampered by China Mobile’s slow-moving corporate culture that has little experience developing products for the fast-changing Internet market. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Huawei could make significant progress in the US smartphone market this year if it devotes more resources to the campaign, while LeTV’s smartphone foray looks necessary but could face difficulty due to stiff competition.
Huawei to step up US smartphone campaign
Rapid developments in the smartphone space are showing no sign of slowing in the New Year, with the latest reports that stalwart Huawei is preparing for a major new push in the US, as online video specialist LeTV (Shenzhen: 300104) prepares its own campaign to enter the crowded arena. Of these 2 news bits, the Huawei one looks like the most significant, as it will see the company make a major play at a US market that is the world’s largest but has been elusive for the Chinese telecoms giant. LeTV previously hinted at its plans to enter the crowded smartphone space, and its relatively late arrival means its endeavor in the crowded field could ultimately fail. Read Full Post…
