China Hotels: Is the Holiday Over?
7 Days (NYSE: SVN) has just reported its second-quarter results, becoming the last of China’s top 3 budget hotel operators to report on a landscape that looks like the holiday may be over for these former high-flyers. Among the trio, which also includes Home Inns (Nasdaq: HMIN) and Hanting hotels operator China Lodging Group (Nasdaq: HTHT), only 7 Days reported respectable revenue growth of 42 percent for the quarter, with China Lodging reporting 25 percent growth and Home Inns reporting 12 percent. But more worrisome, all 3 said they expect the growth rate to slow in the third quarter, and both Home Inns and China Lodging lowered their 2011 revenue outlook by about 16 percent. (7 Days results; Home Inn results; China Lodging results) It’s probably too soon to say the big-growth days are finished for the budget hotel sector, which expanded rapidly in the last 5 years as millions of newly mobile Chinese took to the roads for both business and leisure travel. All 3 companies saw especially strong growth in last year’s second and third quarters during the Shanghai Expo, and cited the “Expo effect” as partly responsible for this year’s slowdown as business returns to more normal levels. (previous post) Still, the fact that 2 of the 3 companies lowered their full-year guidance means the post-Expo slowdown is worse than expected, possibly due to Beijing’s ongoing efforts to try and slow its racing economy. Consolidation in the sector seems inevitable, with both Home Inns and 7 Days announcing recent acquisitions to improve their scale and performance. (previous post) That said, a return to better growth for all 3 looks inevitable starting in the fourth quarter, when both Home Inns and 7 Days will start to include their acquisitions in their results and when the Expo hangover effect will finally be in the past.
Bottom line: China’s budget hotel operators will post weak results through the third quarter, but will return to more robust growth by year end as the Expo effect fades.
Related postings 相关文章:
◙ Hotel Consolidation Moves Ahead With 7 Days Deal 七天连锁酒店收购表明酒店业整合继续
◙ Home Inns Finds Room at Motel168 After All 如家最终收购莫泰168
◙ Home Inns: Expo Hangover 如家进入平稳期
