China Life Joins Financial Begging Line 中国人寿加入融资潮暗含行业危机

By newsdoug on March 28, 2012

The smoldering crisis quietly seeping through China’s financial services sector has infected the nation’s largest insurer, China Life (HKEx: 2628; Shanghai: 601628), which has announced plans to raise about $6 billion this year through the issue of subordinated debt, becoming the latest player to turn to financial markets to raise billions of dollars in new cash as provisions for shaky investments. (English article) The entry of China Life into the beggar’s cue is quite significant, as up until now the latest cash-raising frenzy has been confined mostly to big state-controlled banks that made questionable loans under a Beijing-ordered lending spree to stimulate the economy at the height of the global financial crisis. China Life’s biggest rival, Ping An Insurance (HKEx: 2318; Shanghai: 601318), also previously went to financial markets not once but twice last year, announcing plans to raise a total of more than $6 billion as well. (previous post) But unlike Ping An, which is considered a relatively aggressive investor, China Life is known for its conservative investment policies. As such, the fact that its investments are also running into trouble could be an early warning sign that the problems in China’s financial system run much deeper than industry and government officials realize or are admitting. Beijing has already made several moves to ease the burden on Chinese banks, including a potential plan to let them delay collecting repayment on many of the problematic infrastructure loans they made to local governments that may now be in danger of default. (previous post) China Life announced its fund-raising plan after reporting its quarterly profit slumped 86 percent in last year’s fourth quarter, its worst-ever decline. A 22 percent slump in China’s stock market last year certainly contributed to China Life’s woes, as the company invests up to 10 percent of its money in stocks. But I suspect that such a big profit decline, combined with big fund-raising plans, indicate that stocks alone weren’t responsible for the big downturn, and that many of China Life’s other investments also may be running into problems. The company joins a growing list of major financial institutions that have announced multibillion-dollar capital raising plans in the last half year, including Ping An, Bank of Communications (HKEx: 3328; Shanghai: 601328), China Merchants Bank (HKEx: 3968; Shanghai: 600036) and ICBC (HKEx: 1398; Shanghai: 601398). Minsheng Bank (HKEx: 1988; Shanghai: 600016), one of the nation’s most entrepreneurial lenders, announced its own intent to raise funds last month, and earlier this week gave final details for the $1.4 billion planned Hong Kong share sale. (English article) Look for more fund-raising plans this year, accompanied by significant asset write-downs at both the insurers and banks as the defaults start to swell. From an investor standpoint, unless you have a strong stomach I would say that stocks for these and other major financial institutions look like volatile bets for at least the next 1-2 years.

Bottom line: China Life’s new $6 billion capital raising plan indicates China’s building banking crisis may be worse than most people realize.

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