China Mobile Eyes Harmony, iPhone For 4G Launch
Update: Since originally writing this, the MIIT has finally formally issued 4G licenses, allowing each of the 3 major telcos to operate a service based on the homegrown TD-LTE standard. China Mobile will formally launch service on December 18.
It’s a new day, so I figured that’s a good enough excuse to write about the latest 4G wireless services rumors, which seem to be coming almost daily at this point. The newest rumors look a bit sexier than other recent chatter, this time unveiling the brand name industry leader China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) will use for its new service, and also adding the company will finally offer an Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPhone for the network when it formally launches service later this month. Word of the actual launch date, in this case December 18, was probably the least interesting news in this latest report. That’s because every report I’ve read these last few months nearly always contains a launch date that is ultimately incorrect, and there’s no reason to believe that this new report will break that trend.
Of course I’m being just slightly sarcastic, as I honestly do believe that China Mobile will launch its 4G service before the end of this year, which means such an event would have to happen sometime this month. When that does happen, it’s quite possible that an iPhone could be part of the roll-out, since such a move would obviously provide great publicity for China Mobile, the only one of China’s 3 wireless carriers without an iPhone deal. But before any of that can happen, the nation’s telecoms regulator needs to formally issue 4G licenses.
Rumors were rife for much of this year that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) would issue licenses around the October 1 National Day holiday, even though the period came and went without any news. Late last week a new flurry of reports indicated again that the licenses could be issued as early as last Thursday, but again the day came and went with no news. (previous post)
In a smart move, the latest media reports have stopped trying to figure out when the fickle and slow-moving MIIT will actually issue its licenses. Instead they’re focusing on China Mobile, which has aggressively built up its 4G network over the last 3 years and is almost certain to be the first to offer service after it gets the official regulatory nod. The company has been aggressively advertising its 4G service for the last 2 months, and is even taking pre-orders in some markets.
Now the latest media reports are saying the world’s largest mobile carrier will formally offer its 4G service under the He brand name, which translates to peace or harmony in English. (Chinese article) At the same time, the same reports are saying that China Mobile will launch versions of the latest iPhone models, the 5s and 5c, that can run on the network it has built, which uses a homegrown Chinese technology called TD-LTE.
So what does all this mean? As I’ve said above, I honestly do believe the MIIT is close to issuing 4G licenses, but is just being extra careful and slow before making such a momentous move. It may even have already quietly issued those licenses to the 3 telcos in a series of private meetings last week, with instructions for the trio to make their own formal announcements on a pre-set day later this week.
In terms of the latest reports on China Mobile’s selection of a brand and the iPhone roll-out, I do think that both moves look smart. Selection of a brand for such a new service is quite obvious, and the He name is catchy enough as it combines the ideas of peace and harmony with other meanings like convergence. The launch of a China Mobile iPhone has been under discussions for the last 3 years, but the final announcement of a deal at this time would also be a shrewd move to give the company’s 4G service some quick momentum from the very beginning. I’ve previously predicted that China Mobile could quickly sign up as many as 10 million new 4G subscribers in the first 1-2 months after it launches the service, and would reaffirm that forecast after these latest reports.
Bottom line: China Mobile’s choice of a brand name and potential inclusion of an iPhone for its 4G service look like strong moves that could give it a quick boost when it launches service later this month.
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