China Readies Market for More Bank Begging 中资银行准备再筹资
The regulator’s estimate that China’s banks will need another huge cash infusion over the next 6 years to meet stricter capital requirements probably come as a big surprise to no one. But the amount — a whopping $131 billion — is probably raising a few eyebrows, especially after shareholders just gave the nation’s top banks well over $100 billion combined last year for the same reason. (English article) If I owned shares in any of these banks, which I don’t, the thought of investing more in them in the near future just to keep my stake from getting diluted certainly wouldn’t make me too happy. But then again, anyone who invests in Chinese banks is surely doing so at least partly because he or she knows that these banks are 100 percent guaranteed by the government and, as a foundation of the Chinese economy, are even more important than the Western banks that were later called “too big to fail.” I’d say to look for the banks to start begging again as soon as 2012, as that will give them at least one calendar year (i.e. 2011) when they didn’t need to ask shareholders for more money. And to those shareholders who complain when the future cash calls come, I can only say one thing: the “too big to fail” guarantee from Beijing comes with a big price tag.
Bottom line: Chinese banks look like a bad investment for the next few years, as a new round of cash calls looms.
监管机构估计，中国银行业未来六年将需筹集1,310亿美元的股权资本，来满足更加严格的资本充足规定。这一数额或许会让某些人惊讶不已，特别是中资银行去年刚以同样理由从股东们那里筹集了1,000多亿美元。如果我持有其中任何一家中资银行的股票(事实是我没有)，不远的将来我需要对它们进行更多投资，以使我的股票不被稀释，这种想法肯定不令人高兴。但话又说回来，任何投资中资银行的人肯定在这麽做，部分原因是他们知道这些银行是百分之百政府担保的，而且作为中国经济一个基石，中资银行比所谓“大而不能倒”的西方银行更为重要。我认为中资银行最快会在2012年开始寻求筹资，这将使他们至少有一年时间无需向股东要钱。对那些抱怨筹资的股东们，我只能说：中国政府对中资银行的担保是伴随巨大代价的。
一句话：未来几年，投资中资银行似乎不是个好主意，因新一轮筹资活动即将出现。
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◙ Ping An, Beggars Cup in Hand, Looks Worrisome
◙ NPC: Same Old Same Old, China Mobile Hypes 4G, More Handouts for Bank of China
