China’s Drive to the Suburbs: A Nice Supermarket Play 中国年轻人郊区购房 超市势将获益
While drinking my morning coffee this Monday, I came across a China Daily report on the huge migration of young urban professionals to the suburbs of major cities like Beijing and Shanghai in search of affordable homes, and thought about who was likely to benefit from such a move. Based on my own childhood growing up the suburbs of Washington D.C., one of the clearest beneficiaries will be supermarket chains that serve as one-stop-shops for suburban folk who often have to travel big distances to do their buying. The phenomenon seen by the China Daily (English article) is everywhere you look in China’s major cities today, and I even visited one such emerging suburban “mini-city’ over the weekend while visiting a friend outside Shanghai. Everything was still under construction, but you could clearly see the sprawling development taking shape. As China’s cities become more congested and housing there becomes less affordable, look for a growing number of cost-conscious young people to take up residence in these developments, which are also more child friendly. This should come as a huge opportunity for major supermarket operators like Lianhua (HKEx: 980), a unit of Shanghai Bailain (Shanghai: 600631), which told the China Daily it is preparing to open 800 suburban stores over the near term to cater to the trend. The flight to the suburbs should also help more mid-tier names like Sun Art, which is preparing a $1 billion listing in Hong Kong (English article), as well as global names like Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and Carrefour (Paris: CA), which specialize in sprawling suburban stores. Others, including restaurant chains McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) and Subway, are also experimenting with drive through restaurants that cater to more car-oriented suburban dwellers. (previous post) Of course, the big risk in all this is that a bursting real estate bubble could significantly slow the development of new properties, both in the cities and suburbs. But even if that happens, expensive downtown properties — a speculator favorite that often never even play host to real tenants — are likely to suffer the most, with the move by young professionals to the suburbs likely to emerge as a more enduring trend.
Bottom line: The move by young Chinese professionals to the suburbs in search of affordable homes will fuel a boom for new supermarket development over the next decade.
周一早晨，我在喝咖啡时看到《中国日报》有篇关於许多年轻人在北京和上海等大城市郊区买房的报导，我在思考谁可能从中获益。根据我童年在华盛顿郊区长大的经验，最明显的受益方之一将是提供“一站式”服务的超市连锁店，因为郊区居民往往要走很远才能购物。《中国日报》谈到的这个现象如今在中国各大城市随处可见，我甚至在周末拜访上海郊区的朋友时，亲眼参观了一座郊区“迷你城市”。一切都还在建设中，但明显可以看到规模庞大的开发进程。随着中国城市变得更加拥挤，市区住房价格越发难以承受，越来越多的年轻人为节省成本而搬到郊区居住，而郊区也对儿童更为友好。对於上海百联集团<600631.SS>旗下的联华超市<0980.HK>等大型超市运营商而言，这一进程中蕴藏巨大商机。联华超市对《中国日报》表示，公司计划近期在城市郊区开设800家门店，以满足这一需求趋势。高鑫零售（Sun Art）等中型超市、沃尔玛<WMT.N>和家乐福<CARR.PA>等全球连锁品牌也将从中获益。麦当劳<MCD.N>和赛百味等快餐店也在试行汽车餐厅，以吸引更多驾车的郊区居民。当然，此举最大风险是房地产泡沫破灭可能促使市内和郊区的新楼盘建设明显放缓。但即使发生这种情况，昂贵的市区楼盘受到的冲击将更大，而年轻人搬到郊区居住的趋势可能有增无减。
一句话：中国职场年轻人为寻找负担得起的住房，纷纷搬到郊区居住，这将在未来十年推动超市行业迅速发展。
Related postings 相关文章:
◙ Wal-Mart Buys Into China E-Commerce 沃尔玛进军中国电子商务
◙ McDonald’s Revs Up for China Drive-Thru 麦当劳寄望“得来速”汽车餐厅拓宽中国市场
◙ Welcome to the China Dollhouse: Barbie Packs Up Shanghai Camper
