E-House: Don’t Sell the House Just Yet 易居：不要马上卖掉这栋楼

A prolonged sell-off seems to be driving the latest move by real estate services provider E-House (NYSE: EH), which has just announced a $50 million share repurchase program in a bid to bolster its sagging shares. (news release) Now I’ll be the first to admit I’m quite bearish on the China real estate market, with a correction of 20-30 percent likely in the next 12 months as Beijing tries to cool the overheated market. But I also think the correction will be relatively brief as Beijing will quickly lower interest rates if things cool down too quickly. And regardless of a slowdown, real estate services firms like E-House will be less exposed to such a downturn since they derive most of their income from fees and not actual sales. All that said, E-House shares still trade at a relatively rich premium despite losing 50 percent of their value since October. Some of the high valuation is undoubtedly due to bearish analyst profit forecasts. Still, this company looks a bit oversold and could be a nice long-term play for those seeking exposure to Chinese real estate.

Bottom line: E-House should be able to weather a short real estate downturn with minimal pain, making it attractive for those who like China real estate.

在美国纽交所上市的房地产服务网站易居中国<EH.N>近来遭持续抛售，股价一路走低。易居中国刚刚宣布了5,000万美元的股票回购计划，意在提振股价。我必须承认，我对中国房地产短期前景持悲观态度，我认为在未来一年内，随着政府试图为房地产市场降温，房价可能出现20%-30%的向下修正。但我也相信，这种修正将是相对短暂的。一旦降温过快，北京将迅速降低利率。无 论市场放缓与否，像易居这样的服务商风险都较小，因为他们的收入大多来自於服务费用，而非买卖交易。尽管目前易居股价已经比去年10月的高点下跌了 50%，我认为其溢价仍较高。而高估值的原因之一当然是分析师对其获利预期乐观。所以，我认为，目前易居股票多少有些超卖，对於那些欲试水中国地产业的投 资者来说，不失为一个长期投资的良好选择。

一句话：易居中国应该能够相对安然地度过短期的房地产市场调整，其股票对於投资者来说还是有吸引力的。