Facebook’s China Tie Up: No Big Deal Facebook能否入华？
The rumor mills have been buzzing about a deal that would see social networking juggernaut Facebook finally gain access to China through a tie-up with a local partner. But the bigger question is: will Facebook be able to succeed in China at this late stage, considering the stiff competition and other obstacles it will face. My answer is a definitive “no”. First a recap of the reports, which all say that Facebook has held talks on a tie-up to enter China, where its global site is officially blocked. One Chinese report goes further, saying Facebook has signed a definitive agreement with local Internet search leader Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) as the partner. (English report; Chinese report) With so much buzz, my guess is that something is really happening, though it’s unclear exactly what. What is clear to me is that Facebook’s chances of success in China are very small. The market is already crowded with a number of very successful players, including two Kaixins and Renren among others. Furthermore, history has shown that foreign Web firms have a bad record when working with Chinese partners, and usually do much better just buying a stake in a local company and letting that company run the show.
Bottom line: Facebook is destined to fail in China, even if it can finally enter the country via a tie-up with a local partner.
近来关於Facebook通过与本地公司合作曲线进入中国市场的传言不断。但真正的问题是：即使Facebook真有此计划，在重重竞争和监管障碍之下，它能否成功进入中国市场？我的回答是：绝对没有可能。此前的报导说，在中国大陆被封的Facebook正在与中国公司商讨合作计划，甚至有报导说 Facebook已经与百度<BIDU.O>签署了协议。如此众说纷纭，我估计的确是有所动作，但究竟是什麽性质还不明朗。能确定的就是，Facebook成功进入中国市场的可能微乎其微。在社交网站领域，中国市场已经有了若干非常成功的本土企业，包括开心网，人人等。另外，此前国外网站与中国本土网站合作的案例，往往结局不佳，倒不如直接入股本土公司，让其自行运营。
一句话：即使Facebook能曲线进入中国市场，也必然面临失败结局。
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