Fashion E-tailer Cuts Point to Ad Slowdown 玛萨玛索削减广告投入

By newsdoug on March 5, 2012

Big online ad spending cuts coming in 2012 There’s an interesting report in the domestic media saying popular online men’s fashion retailer Masa Maso is planning to slash its advertising budget by half this year, a move that will probably be repeated throughout the industry as many e-commerce firms, most of them losing money, go into cash conservation mode in their struggle to survive. Of course that also bodes poorly for companies that depend heavily on such ad spending for their revenue, from search leader Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU), which gets nearly all its revenue from advertisers, to web portals like Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) and Sohu (Nasdaq: SOHU) and video and social networking sites likes Youku (NYSE: Youku) and Renren (NYSE: RENN). Let’s look at the report itself, as it does contain some details that show how the situation could play out. It cites a Masa Maso executive saying the company began slashing its ad spending in the second half of last year as part of a strategy to focus more on customer retention, in what looks like a roundabout way of saying it finally realized it had to cut costs and become profitable or risk going bankrupt. (English article) Most significantly, the executive says Masa Maso will focus its limited spending on search advertising, reflecting a broader trend that will see e-commerce firms and other advertisers probably cut back on ad platforms with more marginal returns in favor of ones with better track records. That should play to the advantage of search, which obviously means that Baidu could suffer less than others when the looming spending downturn becomes a major tide. Meantime, I would expect portal operators like Sina to also do relatively well in the coming downturn, as they tend to attract more mainstream audiences that would appeal more to advertisers. Companies most likely to take the biggest hit are specialty players, especially ones that cater to younger demographics who have less money to spend and thus are less attractive to advertisers. That category includes many money-losing companies such as video sharing sites like Youku and social networking ones like Renren, which means that these companies might have to wait longer still to achieve their quest for sustainable profits. I expect this report from Masa Maso reflects a sharp slashing of ad budgets for 2012 in general, meaning we should start to see some of the damage show up when companies that depend on ads for their revenue start reporting their first-quarter results in April and May. When that happens, look for investor dollars to flow to the big names like Baidu and Sina, while shares of less popular advertising platforms like Youku and Renren could take a hit.

Bottom line: A slash in advertising by a major fashion retailer reflects broader cuts by e-commerce firms this year, which will soon show up in ad-dependent firms’ bottom lines.

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