Foreign Automakers Uncharged on China EVs 外国汽车商对中国电动汽车市场态度谨慎
A barely noticeable news brief on Nissan’s (Tokyo: 7201) electric vehicle, the Leaf, in today’s China Daily provides some insight on how the big foreign automakers see China as an EV market, spotlighting the uphill battle the country faces in developing this technology. Nearly every foreign automaker has announced one plan or another to import or even build its EVs or hybrid vehicles in China, with GM (NYSE: GM) giving plans for its Chevy Volt and Toyota (Tokyo: 7203) and Volkswagen (Frankfurt: VOWG) all announcing their own initiatives. But most of those plans have been vague at best, reflecting both the fact that technology still needs time to mature and also a high degree of skepticism that Chinese consumers are ready to spend big dollars on alternate energy vehicles, which are typically much more expensive than gas-powered cars and require charging infrastructure that most of China still lacks. The news brief hidden on the inside pages of today’s China Daily says that Nissan recently put 15 of its Leaf EVs on the road in the central Chinese city of Wuhan for test driving. A company spokesman further said that Nissan will continue the tests for a full 3 years, which sounds to me like an incredibly long period for this kind of technology if it was really interested in trying to sell these vehicles in China. In fact, there’s a very real possibility that the technology will be obsolete in 3 years or sooner, meaning the Leaf will probably never see any commercial sales in China at all. My guess is that other foreign automakers will proceed with similarly conservative plans for their EV and hybrid vehicles in China, as all wait to see if government incentives and needed infrastructure develop to make a serious effort worthwhile. If that is indeed what happens, look for EV and hybrid auto sales by foreign automakers in China to number in the thousands of units or less for each of the next 2-3 years, while domestic players like BYD (HKEx: 1211; Shenzhen: 002594) are left to make a more serious effort at developing what in all likelihood will be a very difficult market.
Bottom line: Foreign automakers like Nissan are taking a very conservative approach to developing China’s green vehicle market, and are unlikely to invest very much in the space.
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