Gaopeng, Kaixin Spotlight China Internet Turmoil 高朋网、开心网凸显中国互联网混乱现状

By newsdoug on August 23, 2011

Signs of turbulence continue in China’s cutthroat and overinflated Internet space, with worrisome news coming from Kaixin, China’s second biggest social networking site (SNS), as well as Gaopeng, the group buying site operated by Groupon and Tencent (HKEx: 700). First Gaopeng. Despite its denials that anything is amiss, Gaopeng has just laid off 400 employees across its various locations, in what looks like the biggest in a steady stream of cuts that have made headlines in the Chinese media Gaopeng, Kaixin reports show turbulence in China Internet in recent weeks. (Chinese article) The company is facing intense competition from at least three major rivals, Lashou, Dianping and 55tuan, which collectively raised $500 million in venture funding earlier this year (previous post) and are clearly engaging in a cutthroat grab for share in this market that is certainly lucrative but lacks the size to support so many major players. I suspect that Groupon started up Gaopeng early this year to give itself a “China story” to please US investors in the run-up to its upcoming IPO. But now that it sees how cutthroat the market is, it could easily shutter Gapeng before the offering in a bid to hide what are undoubtedly some ugly financials from investors from this struggling joint venture. Meantime, Kaixin, which lost a race earlier this year with Renren (NYSE: RENN) to become China’s first publicly listed SNS, has broken a months-long silence to address recent reports of massive subscriber losses. The company’s low-key founder Cheng Binghao held an unusual media briefing in which he said Kaixin’s previous explosive growth rate is slowing to a more realistic level, and added the days of heady growth for China’s Internet may be finished. (Chinese article) Cheng said the company now has 117 million registered users, just behind Renren’s 124 million, though I suspect many of those are inactive, which Cheng hinted is the case. With that kind of a slowing growth story and the current general market turbulence, along with the threat of a new SNS service from Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) (previous post), I wouldn’t look for Kaixin to move ahead with its IPO until it has a better story to tell, which would be next year at the earliest.

Bottom line: Downbeat reports surrounding Gaopeng and Kaixin reflect a China Internet market in turmoil, with consolidation and few new IPOs likely through the rest of the year.

中国互联网急剧扩张的混乱状况持续，开心网和高朋网接连传来令人担忧的消息。先是美国Groupon和腾讯联合在华经营的团购网站–高朋网。尽管公司否认运营出现状况，但高朋网在各地站点已裁员400人，似乎是逐步裁员规模最大的一次，近几周高朋网裁员成为中国媒体热门焦点。高朋网面临团购市场竞争加剧的局面，大的竞争对手至少包括三家：拉手网、大众点评网和窝窝团，上述三家公司今年早些时候共募集5亿美元风险投资，也正积极投入团购市场的激烈厮杀。团购市场利润确实可观，但规模不足以支持如此多的大型团购网站。我怀疑，Groupon今年稍早成立高朋网时，是想给自己创造一个“中国故事”，从而在其IPO筹备阶段取悦美国投资者。但鉴于中国团购市场竞争激烈的现状，Groupon或在IPO前轻而易举地关闭高朋网，避免投资者看到这一合资公司中难看的财报。今年早些时候，开心网在赴美上市赛跑中输给人人网(RENN.N)，未能成为第一家在美国上市的社交网站。开心网打破一个月来的沉默，回应近期有关开心网用户大量流失的报导。开心网低调的创始人程炳皓罕见举行媒体吹风会，称开心网爆发性增长期已经过去，增长放缓至一个更实际的水平，并称中国互联网强势增长的时代或已结束。程炳皓透露，开心网现有1.17亿注册用户，稍低于人人网的1.24亿人，但我怀疑，其中许多并非活跃用户，程炳皓的表态似乎暗示了这一点。鉴于开心网用户增长放缓，目前市场普遍混乱，再加上新浪(SINA.O)微博的威胁，我认为，除非开心网能有更好的故事，否则不会推进其IPO，估计最早也要到明年了。

一句话：有关高朋网和开心网的负面消息表明，中国互联网市场现状混乱，今年内或将进行调整，不太可能有新的IPO。