GM’s China Growth Story Stalls Out 通用汽车在华增长势头受挫

By newsdoug on May 8, 2011

China, a key driver behind GM’s (NYSE: GM) return from the dead, may not be such potent fuel in the next year or two. The largest US automaker has released its April data for China, revealing its sales in the world’s largest auto market dipped 5 percent in for the month, following small gains in February and March. (English article) The contraction is likely to be followed by more in the months ahead as Beijing GM's stalling China dream takes measures to cool the market and clear up its congested roads, boding poorly for GM’s previously announced plan to double its car sales in China over the next 5 years. Barring any new moves by Beijing to re-jumpstart the market – which seems unlikely – GM’s target is starting to look more like wishful thinking than anything attainable, forcing the global auto giant to look elsewhere for a growth story to keep its investors excited.

Bottom line: GM’s explosive China growth has hit a plateau, which, barring any new government incentives, is likely to continue for the next two years.

中国市场是帮助通用汽车<GM.N>起死回生的主要因素之一，但这一动力在未来一两年或将削弱。根据通用汽车发布的4月在华销售数据，其在华汽车销量继2月及3月小幅增加後，4月较去年同期下跌5%。由於北京采取车市降温措施，以解决交通拥堵等问题，通用汽车在华销量在未来数月可能会进一步减少，这对通用此前宣布的未来五年使在华汽车销量翻倍的计划不啻为一大打击。通用的这一目标如今看来更像是个可望而不可即的美好愿望而已，而这将迫使公司寻找其它增长市场，以保持投资者的热情。

一句话：通用汽车在中国的爆发性增长势头已经触顶，而如果政府不推出新的刺激政策，这种状况在未来两年很可能会持续。