Group Buying Sites: The First to Fall? 团购网或将在互联网泡沫破灭时应声而倒？
I’ve been writing for more than a month now about China’s looming Internet bubble, and a new domestic media report makes a good case that group buying sites may lead the way when this bubble bursts in the months ahead. (Chinese article) According to the report, China’s field of group buying sites has exploded in recent months, with some 5,000 such sites now operating versus just 2,000 at the end of last year. What’s more, an industry executive at one of the top sites, 55tuan, estimated that all of the top 10 players are now losing money, as they rapidly burn through hundreds of millions of dollars in cash raised earlier this year in pursuit of a very limited base of online Chinese shoppers. Those same consumers, with so many sites to choose from, are becoming more and more selective, forcing the sites to offer promotions that are ridiculously cheap and obviously money losing. Gaopeng, the group buying joint venture between global leader Groupon and leading Chinese Internet company Tencent (HKEx: 700), has captured headlines for much of the last month with reports of its steady layoff of hundreds of employees around China. In July, 55tuan, which earlier this year raised $200 million funding, also reportedly had to abandon plans for an overseas IPO after several major Western investment banks turned it down over concerns about accounting records for many of the companies it has acquired over the last year. (previous article) And to add to the mess, signs emerged last month that Chinese tax authorities were preparing to crack down on the unruly sector, which officials believe could owe more than 500 million yuan, or about $77 million, in unpaid taxes. (previous post) With all these warning signs flashing, it’s not hard to imagine that the group buying sector is probably already in a state of crisis with a major shakeout likely to begin by the end of the year, which could easily see the closure of at least one or two big players.
Bottom line: The group buying sector, which has seen explosive growth over the last year, is the most likely candidate to lead the bursting of China’s current Internet bubble.
一个多月以来，我写了多篇关于中国互联网泡沫的文章，一家国内媒体的最新报导与我形成了呼应。这篇报导称，团购网可能在未来几个月互联网泡沫破裂时率先倒下。这篇报导称，国内团购网站2010年年底达到2000多家，到2011年7月，这个数字变成了5000家。此外，窝窝团高管估计，现在前十大团购网站全部亏损，这些团购网迅速烧掉了今年稍早筹集的数亿美元现金，争夺仍非常有限的中国网上购物者。这些购物者因为有那麽多网站可以选择，现在已经变得越来越挑剔，迫使网站提供价格便宜得很可笑的促销，明显是赔钱。全球最大团购网站Groupon和中国互联网公司腾讯合资组建的高朋网，在上月多数时间里都是媒体高度关注的对象，该网在中国持续裁员数百名。7月有报导称，窝窝网因遭到几家主要欧美国家投行的拒绝，放弃了赴海外上市的计划，投行为其去年收购的很多公司的会计记录感到担忧。窝窝网今年稍早刚筹资2亿美元。此外，上月有迹象表明中国税务机关准备对团购网行业严加管理，官方估计的欠税额为5亿元人民币，或相当于7700万美元。这些令人警醒的信号已经出现，不难想象团购网站行业可能已经陷入危机，年底时很可能开始发生重大变化，你可能轻易就能发现至少一两家行业龙头关门。
一句话：团购网去年经历了爆炸式增长，很可能在当前中国互联网泡沫破灭时应声而倒。
Related postings 相关文章:
◙ Tax Evasion Report: Trouble Brewing in Group Buying? 团购被曝逃税 行业整顿或在即
◙ Gaopeng, Kaixin Spotlight China Internet Turmoil 高朋网、开心网凸显中国互联网混乱现状
◙ 55tuan Scraps Listing Plan After Banks Get Cold Feet 各投行临阵退缩 “窝窝团”放弃赴美上市
