Hainan Airlines Hits Free Market Turbulence 海南航空：自由市场是福还是祸？

By newsdoug on July 13, 2011

Hainan Air hits free market turbulence Chinese companies without strong central government connections are generally better run and more nimble than their those with such ties, but Hainan Airlines (Shanghai: 600221) — one of the nation’s best-run carriers — is finding out that lack of such connections has its downside. The company has just announced plans to raise $1.2 billion through a new share issue, pricing those new shares a full 13 percent below its last price before trading was suspended. (English article) Those who follow China’s aviation sector will recall that all three of the big state-run carriers, Air China, China Southern and China Eastern, have received large government bailouts in the last two years to help them recover from a sharp downturn during the global financial crisis, coupled with the ongoing hit they are taking from high oil prices. Hainan Airlines, which counts George Soros among its major shareholders, is clearly getting no such generosity from the Hainan provincial government, one of its other major stakeholders. In the short term this kind of market-based fund raising will clearly put Hainan at a disadvantage versus the major state-run carriers, forcing it to pay much higher costs for its recapitalization. Over the long-term, however, this kind of exercise should make the airline stronger, as it learns to deal with market forces using its own resources without depending on government assistance every time it runs into trouble. As I’ve said before, investors who buy shares in large state-run companies, be they banks, airlines or telcos, are partly buying into their government ties, including the implicit guarantee that Beijing won’t allow them to fail. But while that guarantee may look good in times of difficulty, ultimately it undermines these big state-run giants over the long term by keeping them dependent on government support. So while Hainan stock is likely to take a hit when trading resumes, it still looks like a good bet to me over the long haul.

Bottom line: Hainan Airlines’ share sale at a big discount spotlights its independent, market-oriented nature, which will ultimately help it to emerge as a stronger player due to its lack of state support.

与中央没有深厚关系的中国企业往往经营得更好，更加灵活，但是海南航空<600221.S>现在发现，没有这样的关系也有弊端。公司刚刚宣布通过定向增发，筹资12亿美元，发行价比停盘前的最後价格低13%。关注中国航空业的人应还记得三大国营航空公司——中国国航、南方航空与东方航空过去两年中获得了大额政府援助，帮助他们挺过了金融危机期间的急剧衰退，以及目前高油价形成的冲击。海南省政府对海航显然没有那麽大方，海航的大股东中包括乔治•索罗斯。短期来看，此类基於市场的融资方式显然会让海航比国营大型航空企业处於相对劣势的地位，推升了公司的融资成本。但长期而言，此类操作应会让海航更加强大，让它学会如何利用自身资源与市场力量打交道，而不是每次出现问题就向政府求助。正如我以前所说，投资者购买大型国企的股票，无论是银行、航空公司还是电信巨头，其实一部分也是在押注其政府关系，及政府不会让它们倒下的隐含保证。虽然困难时期这些保证看起来很不错，但是长远而言则会削弱这些企业，因它们一直依赖政府。所以，虽然海航股价复盘後可能会受冲击，但长期而言，我认为还是一个不错的选择。

一句话：海航定向增发的定价很低，反映出公司的独立与市场导向特质，而这些特质最终会帮助海航进一步壮大，没有政府支持反是好事。