Home Inns: Expo Hangover 如家进入平稳期

By newsdoug on May 9, 2011

Talk about Expo hangover. Home Inns (Nasdaq: HMIN) has just released its Q1 results, and they don’t look all that pretty for China’s largest budget hotel operator. The company posted just 11 percent profit growth for the quarter, and even weaker 8 percent revenue growth. (company announcement) Outlook didn’t look much better for the current quarter, with revenue expected to rise just 12-15 percent. The only bright spot was their franchised and managed hotel business, which was up 50 percent in the first quarter and now accounts for about 10 percent of their overall revenue. I imagine the picture won’t get much better for the rest of the year, as the comparables from the height of the Shanghai Expo start to make life difficult in the third quarter. It does seem like the company’s prospects are likely to plateau for the moment, but I do like the growth in the franchised and managed business, which has much lower overhead than owning and operating your own hotels. As I’ve said before, I also like this company further down the road for its strong position in Shanghai after the city opens its Disneyland in three or four years’ time. (previous post)

Bottom line: Home Inns has hit a plateau in its strong growth, but could easily regain that momentum with its franchise-management business and from the new Shanghai Disneyland.

如家酒店<HMIN.O>刚刚发布的第一季财报欠佳，作为中国最大的经济型酒店运营商，如家第一季利润仅增11%，营收增幅仅为8%，并且第二季前景看起来也好不了多少，第二季营收料将增长12-15%。我估计今年余下的时间里，如家财报都难有明显改观，因第三季业绩的比较基期正是去年世博会客流高峰。看起来如家像是进入了快速发展後的平稳期，不过我看好其特许经营酒店业务，因为其管理成本远低於自营酒店。此外，像我以前说的那样，随着三四年後上海迪士尼开张，如家在上海的地位将进一步巩固。

一句话：如家酒店进入快速发展後的平稳期，但得益於特许经营酒店业务，以及未来上海迪士尼开张，如家轻易可重拾发展动能。