Latest Google Move: Gearing Up For China Return? 谷歌最新动向：打回中国市场？

By newsdoug on September 14, 2011

Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) has launched yet another new China initiative, this time opening a group buying directory, in the latest of a series of moves that has the industry buzzing that the global search leader is reconsidering its high-profile withdrawal from China’s search market last year. In this latest development, domestic media are reporting that Google has officially launched a new site, Shuihui, to help Web surfers navigate the huge field of group buying sites, led by names like Lashou and 55tuan, that have sprung up in the last two years. (English article) The launch follows Google’s brief announcement last week that Beijing has renewed its Internet China Internet license (English article), and comes 3 months after Google reached a settlement with Chinese regulators that allowed it to continue providing its mapping services in China. (previous post) Google is also aggressively promoting its Android cellphone operating system in China as a lower cost alternative to Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) popular iPhone OS. This new spirit of cooperation between Google and Beijing contrasts sharply with the war of words between the two that ended with Google’s high-profile withdrawal from China’s search market last year over self-censorship issues. The changing tone has sparked rumors that Google is reconsidering its withdrawal from China’s search market, a move that at first seems unlikely but which could actually be possible due to some key changes in the market since last year’s big dispute. The biggest change is Beijing’s growing unease at Baidu’s (Nasdaq: BIDU) domination of China’s search market, with around 80 percent share now and no clear challengers in sight. (previous post) The second major change is that Beijing and Google have had some time to think, and both realize they can benefit from each other if they choose to work together rather than fight. Of course, Google will only come back if Beijing makes a major face-saving concession, probably by lifting many of its strict self-censorship rules. But considering recent developments, I would put Google’s chances for a return to China’s search market at 50-50 in the next 12 months.

Bottom line: Google may be considering a return to China’s search market in light of recent warming of its relations with Beijing, with a 50 percent chance of returning in the next 12 months.

谷歌(GOOG.O)再次出击中国市场，这次是团购搜索分类“谷歌时惠”，加之谷歌近来一系列其他举措，业界不禁猜测谷歌是否在重新考虑去年高调退出中国搜索市场的做法。据中国国内媒体报导，谷歌正式推出新服务“谷歌时惠”，帮助网络用户导航纷繁众多的团购网站。在此之前，谷歌还于上周发布简短声明，称中国政府已经更新了谷歌的中国互联网牌照。而在三个月前，谷歌与中国监管机构达成妥协，谷歌可继续在中国提供地图服务。此外，谷歌还在中国积极推广安卓手机操作系统，作为苹果(AAPL.O)iPhone OS的替代选择。谷歌与中国政府之间崭新的合作精神与去年双方围绕自我过滤问题的激烈交锋形成鲜明对比。合作基调渐趋改变，促使业界猜测谷歌是否在重新考虑其退出中国搜索市场做法。最大的变化在于中国对于百度在中国搜索市场的垄断地位益发不安。百度在国内搜索引擎市场的占有率高达80%，对手们远远被甩在了後面。第二个重大变化是中国政府与谷歌有了一些思考的时间，都意识到双方合则两利，斗则两伤。当然，只有在中国政府作出重大让步，比如放开很多自我审查规定之後，谷歌才会回归。但是考虑到近来事态的发展，我认为谷歌今後12个月回归中国搜索市场的机率为50%。

一句话：鉴于近来与中国政府的关系逐渐升温，谷歌可能正在考虑重回中国搜索市场，未来12个月回归机率大约为50%。