Lenovo-NEC: Let the Defections Begin 联想与NEC结盟注定失败

By newsdoug on July 5, 2011

Lenovo-NEC PC tie-up looks shaky I haven’t written for a while about Lenovo (HKEx: 992), which seems to have rediscovered its appetite for questionable M&A in difficult Western markets with its just-completed joint venture that will effectively see it take over NEC’s (Tokyo: 6701) troubled PC business. (English article) First, let’s move past the slick announcement and say what this deal really is. The two sides are calling the new alliance, which saw Lenovo give NEC $175 million in shares in exchange for 51 percent of a joint venture containing NEC’s PC assets, a partnership. But in reality, it’s the first step in a process that both sides hope will eventually see Lenovo take over NEC’s PC business, which is quickly becoming irrelevant everywhere in the world except for its highly protected home market in Japan. The big problem behind this deal is that Japanese customers, both corporate and consumers, aren’t stupid: they will quickly realize that NEC — which now holds a quarter of the Japanese PC market — is no longer a Japanese brand after this tie-up and will abandon it in droves, much the way US and other global consumers abandoned IBM-brand PCs after IBM (NYSE: IBM) sold its PC business to Lenovo in 2005. I expect to see similar results with Lenovo’s other recently acquired Western brand, Germany’s Medion (Frankfurt: MDN). (previous post) Luckily for Lenovo, it’s only investment in this NEC deal is the $175 million it put into the joint venture, and even that was only in shares. Lenovo is probably hoping that when the dust settles, there will still be enough business left from the legacy NEC operations to justify this move. But realistically speaking I see a 50 percent chance or less for this tie-up to succeed, and doubt Lenovo’s share of the Japan PC market will top even 15 percent 5 years from now.

Bottom line: Lenovo’s new joint venture with NEC is likely to fail, with NEC-brand PCs set to rapidly lose share in the Japanese PC market in the next 5 years.

我很长时间没有写关於联想<0992.HK>的文章了。联想收购NEC的PC业务，成立合资公司後，好像又重新对并购西方国家企业感兴趣了。首先，让我们看看，这桩并购到底是什麽实质内容。首先，联想发行新股支付NEC 1.75亿美元，换取与NEC旗下PC部门组成合资企业中51%的股权。但事实上，这仅仅是联想在收购NEC的PC业务上迈出的第一步。除了在受到保护的本土市场，NEC的PC业务在其他市场都已经沦落到无足轻重的地步。这桩交易背後的一个大问题是，日本消费者，无论是公司还是个人，都不蠢：他们将很快认识到，占据日本PC市场四分之一的NEC电脑产品，在这一交易之後不再是日本品牌了，他们会逐渐放弃这个品牌，就像美国和其他国家消费者在2005年联想收购IBM的PC业务後放弃IBM品牌一样。我觉得联想收购的其他西方企业品牌，如德国Medion公司<MDNG.DE>，也会面临类似下场。但对於联想来说，幸运的是其对NEC的投资只是其对合资公司投入的1.75亿美元。联想可能希望，尘埃落定後，NEC品牌还会有足够多的生意。但老实说，我觉得这个结盟成功的机率至多不过50%，对五年後联想在日本PC市场能占到15%份额也表示怀疑。

一句话：联想与NEC的合资公司可能失败，未来五年，NEC品牌的PC可能很快在日本失去市场。

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