Lenovo’s TV Gamble: Failure Ahead? 联想电视赌注：未来会失败吗？

By newsdoug on May 15, 2012

Lenovo's first smart TV set to flop I should credit leading PC maker Lenovo (HKEx: 992) for being ahead of the curve by releasing its new smart TV in China last week, getting a slight lead on a widely anticipated launch for by Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) for a similar new product group that could revolutionize the way people watch TV. (English article) Reviews are still few for Lenovo’s new product, a 55-inch TV called the K91; but based on its past track record as a company with limited capability in new product design, I would offer only a very small chance for this product to succeed, potentially costing Lenovo hundreds of millions of dollars in development and marketing costs. The reason for my pessimism is simple: Lenovo, a specialist in PCs for developing markets, has never shown any ability to be a leader in new product design, especially in areas where it has little or no experience. Its previous forays into cellphones, gaming consoles and tablet PCs have all been mostly flops, failing to generate any buzz or excitement after having to compete with better designed products from the likes of more innovative firms like Apple, Samsung (Seoul: 005930), Asustek (Taipei: 2357) and HTC (HKEx: 2498). Given that poor track record, I have little reason to believe this latest initiative will succeed either, especially since such smart TVs are a completely new category and thus there are few products out there to use as a guidebook into what works and what doesn’t for this area. I do at least have to give Lenovo credit for trying hard by buying state-of-the art technology for its first smart TV, with components coming from such top-end suppliers as chip designer Qualcomm (Nasdaq: QCOM), audio technology firm DTS (Nasdaq: DTSI) and its operating system based on Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) popular Android platform. The company may also be making a smart choice by launching the product in its home China market, where it is the dominant PC brand and which accounts for around half of its sales. But its early launch even in China could mean very little if its product doesn’t contain content and functionality that ordinary consumers want. What’s more, competing products from Samsung and especially Apple are likely to hit the market in a matter of months, meaning Lenovo won’t have much of a head-start over these rivals whose products will no doubt contain more features and generate more buzz than the Lenovo TVs. Lenovo hasn’t said very much about response for the product in the week since its launch, saying only that performance has exceeded its expectations. (Chinese article) But considering its past track record, look for the K91 to post disappointing sales over the longer term, perhaps in the tens of thousands this year, and for this broader smart TV initiative to end up as a failure for Lenovo like many of its other new product initiatives.

Bottom line: Lenovo’s new smart TV initiative is likely to fail despite an early head-start over rivals in China, with products from foreign rivals likely to eventually dominate the market.

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