Message to Saab: Don’t Count on China 萨博不应指望中国注资
It was an action-filled weekend for dying Swedish carmaker Saab, which begged for more time to secure a cash infusion from China even as its unions called for it to file for bankruptcy. (English article) My message to the Saab is this: if you’re counting on the Chinese to save you, then you can probably start writing your own obituary. I know that probably sounds harsh, but this particular case is strikingly similar to another case that ultimately ended with the demise of the muscular but obsolete Hummer brand in the US a couple of years ago. Let’s review the facts: Saab is in standby-mode while it waits for two potential saviors, little-known Chinese vehicle companies Zhejiang Youngman and Pangda Automobile, to get Chinese government approval to throw the Swedish automaker a lifeline in the form of a 245 million euro investment. (English article) The deal sounds remarkably similar to Hummer’s situation in 2009, which saw it find a Chinese savior in the form of a little-known Chinese industrial equipment maker, Tengzhong, only to see the deal collapse when it failed to win central government approval. In both cases, relatively unknown Chinese firms with little or no experience running an overseas operation have tried to step up and save a small, dying Western brand. The Chinese regulator, the National Development and Reform Commission, never gave an official explanation for vetoing the Tengzhong-Hummer deal in 2009. But in my view it rightly realized that even an experienced car maker would have a very difficult time resuscitating Hummer, and a company like Tengzhong stood about a zero percent chance of success. There’s no reason to think the NDRC won’t correctly feel the same way with this Youngman-Pangda-Saab deal, despite optimistic words from the Chinese investors over the weekend. So unless Saab finds an alternate investos, which looks unlikely, its future prospects are in serious trouble.
Bottom line: A potential lifeline to Saab from two Chinese firms will get vetoed by the government, forcing the dying Swedish automaker into bankruptcy.
瑞典汽车制造商萨博危在旦夕，尽管瑞典两大工会呼吁其申请破产，萨博仍希望争取到更多时间，以从中国得到注资。我想告诉萨博的是：如果指望中国搭救，那很可能是自掘坟墓。我知道这听起来很刺耳，但这和两年前的一幕极为相似，四川腾中重工收购悍马品牌，最终以失败收场。让我们看一下现状：萨博处于“待机”模式，坐等浙江青年莲花汽车和庞大汽贸集团搭救，期待这两家并不知名的中国公司能获得中国监管部门批准，向其注资2.45亿欧元。这笔交易听起来很像2009年悍马的境遇，当时腾中重工收购悍马未能获批。在这两笔交易中，都是相对不知名、没有海外运作经验或经验很少的中国企业，试图搭救即将破产的西方小品牌。中国发改委从未对2009年否决腾中收购悍马做出官方解释。但我认为，发改委正确意识到，即使是一家经验丰富的汽车商，在收购悍马後也会遭遇困难，像腾中这样的企业成功机率为零。尽管萨博中方投资者周末表态乐观，但发改委对浙江青年莲花汽车和庞大汽贸投资萨博，未尝不会持有与腾中收购悍马一样的看法。因此，除非萨博另觅投资方（这看似也不太可能实现），否则该公司将前途多舛。
一句话：两家中国企业拟投资萨博救急，该计划或遭中国政府否决，从而迫使萨博汽车不得不破产。
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