Minsheng Rural Rush: For Real or PR? 民生银行“下乡潮”：假下乡，真公关？
Minsheng Bank (HKEx: 1988; Shanghai: 600016), one of China’s first private banks, is telling the world it sees the future, and that future is in rural banks. (English article) I personally have a lot of respect for Minsheng, which is probably more like a true commercial bank than most of its Chinese peers. But this latest campaign, which in theory sounds interesting, seems more like a play to win favor from the media and government, which is pushing for more development in China’s rural areas. Global players like HSBC (HKEx: 5) and Standard Chartered (HKEx: 2888) have also heeded the call, in what also looks like a PR exercise. A quick look at the numbers shows just how small this business is, and how difficult it will be to gain the economies of scale to contribute meaningfully to a company like Minsheng’s bottom line: the three units Minsheng plans to open as its first foray into rural banking have combined capitalization of just 400 million yuan, or about $62 million. Sure, maybe they’ll set up thousands of similar units across China in the next few years and could start to see some serious money from the business at some point. But considering the small size of rural loans and high degree of education needed to make this initiative work, I wouldn’t look for any meaningful returns in the next 5 years or even longer – if ever.
Bottom line: Minsheng’s move into rural banking won’t yield returns anytime soon, and looks more like a PR exercise.
中国民生银行<600016.SS><1988.HK>昭告世界：看到了民生银行的未来，而未来就是村镇银行。我个人非常尊重民生银行，相比其大多数中国同行，民生银行可能更像是一家真正的商业银行。不过民生银行这次推进民生向农村地区发展，看起来更像是争取媒体与政府的好感，中国政府现在正积极推动农村地区的进一步发展。像汇丰<HKEx: 5>和渣打<HKEx: 2888>等国际大行也已积极响应这一号召，看似更像是公关动作。迅速浏览一下相关数据就能看出，民生此次村镇业务有多小：民生银行拟开设的三家村镇银行，总注册资本金仅仅四亿元人民币。当然，民生未来几年可能在全国上下开设无数类似分支，未来某一刻开始也有可能获得一定收入。但是考虑到农村贷款规模小、而且初期工作需要大量宣传教育，我认为未来五年甚至更长，更甚者始终，难见有回报。
一句话：民生银行“下乡行”近期难见收益，公关之意更为明显。
Related postings 相关文章:
◙ ICBC: Maintaining Profits, As Shareholders Foot the Bill
◙ China Readies Market for More Bank Begging 中资银行准备再筹资
◙ Minsheng Fund-Raising Shift Reveals Govt Angst
