More Internet Froth in Alibaba Valuation, Dangdang Price War 阿里巴巴估值奇高凸显网络泡沫
The latest signs of froth in China’s bulging Internet bubble are popping up in several places this week, with new investors in e-commerce leader Alibaba Group boasting a ridiculously high valuation for the company, while the latest price war by Dangdang (NYSE: DANG) underscores the overheated competition. And in perhaps the most revealing of the new developments, even state-owned dinosaur CCTV is jumping on the e-commerce bandwagon, with the launch of its CNTV Mall. (English article) Let’s begin with Alibaba, which has received new investment from a group of blue-chip investors including Singapore’s Temasek, private equity firm Silver Lake Partners and Russia’s Digital Sky Technologies (DST), which are boasting their investment values the company at as much as $32 billion. (English article) This sounds ridiculous for a company that analysts were estimating was worth around $10 billion just months ago, and is reminiscent of DST’s estimate earlier this year shortly after it and others invested $1.5 billion in e-commerce site 360Buy that that company was worth up to $10 billion. (previous post) I wouldn’t be surprised if DST was the one giving the $32 billion figure for Alibaba, and would advise DST’s chief Yuri Milner to take a course in remedial finance before throwing out more such overinflated numbers in the future. In terms of Dangdang, the company is reportedly pressuring consumer electronics companies that sell on its site to lower their prices below those of comparable products on 360Buy, in a campaign that a Dangdang insider says has been named “operation decapitation”. (English article) The name of the campaign itself reflects the hyper competition that has appeared in China’s e-commerce space following the infusion of billions of dollars in new investment over the past year. But the biggest sign of a bubble in my view is the arrival of China Central Television, better known as CCTV, to the market. You know that when a slow-moving dinosaur like CCTV finally joins the game, the party is almost over.
Bottom line: A sky-high new valuation for Alibaba Group and the latest cut-throat campaign from Dangdang are the latest signs of a looming burst for China’s Internet bubble.
本周种种迹象表明，中国互联网泡沫正在成形。阿里巴巴市值被投资者吹捧到高得离谱，当当网(DANG.N)近期打响价格战凸显行业竞争白热化。最能说明问题的莫过于CCTV也进军电子商务领域，推出中国网络电视台商城（CNTV Mall）。首先，来谈谈阿里巴巴。该集团近期获得多家蓝筹投资机构投资，包括新加坡淡马锡控股、私募公司Silver Lake Partners及俄罗斯风投公司数字天空科技（DST）。这些机构称，他们对阿里巴巴的投资，促使该公司市值高达320亿美元。这听起来十分荒谬，因为仅在数月前，分析师估算的阿里巴巴市值仅为100亿美元左右。这不禁让人想起今年早些时候，DST与沃尔玛和百度向京东商城投资15亿美元后不久，就对京东商城估值100亿美元。如果是DST提供阿里巴巴市值320亿美元的数据，我一点也不会感到惊讶，我会建议，DST执行长米尔纳（Yuri Milner）以後夸大这类数据前，应先学会补齐财务知识。有报导称，当当网正向其消费电子产品供应商施压，要求其售价应低于京东商城同类产品，当当网内部人士透露，此举被命名为“斩首行动”。这一名字本身就反映了中国电子商务行业竞争白热化的现状。该领域过去一年来获得了数十亿计美元的新注资。但我认为，中国互联网泡沫的最大迹象是CCTV进军该市场。要知道，像CCTV这样行动缓慢的庞然大物加入时，游戏就基本结束了。
一句话：对阿里巴巴集团估值过高，当当网启动“斩首行动”，这些都是中国互联网泡沫破裂的最新迹象。
Related postings 相关文章:
◙ Muddy Waters, Taobao Mall Wake Up to China E-commerce Hype
◙ 360Buy IPO: Let the Delays Begin 京东商城放缓IPO进程
◙ Wal-Mart Finds Bargain in China’s Internet Bubble
