More Turbulence For Alternate Energy
The Year of the Dragon is off to a dubious start for China’s alternate energy sector, with solar panel makers facing stiff resistance in both the US and Germany, 2 of the world’s biggest markets, and now wind power equipment makers coming under similar fire. The solar story in the US is actually an old one by now, following the launch of an investigation into unfair subsidies by Beijing for its solar panel makers last summer. (previous post) But what’s new on that front is that the US body that rules on such matters is likely to make its final decision soon, which will likely result in punitive tariffs that will send a chill through the solar energy market. A US group that helped to bring the original complaint has just put out a new analysis saying Chinese companies have been rushing to import their panels to the US in anticipation of a ruling against them, with imports up more than 100 percent since last July when the probe first began. (English announcement) Usually I’m a little skeptical about this kind of industry announcement, but in this case I wouldn’t be surprised if the numbers are actually relatively accurate, as Chinese producers like Suntech (NYSE: STP), Trina (NYSE: TSL) and Yingli (NYSE: YGE) certainly have reason to stockpile panels in the US to weather a coming storm that could see punitive tariffs remain for a year or more until the US and China settle their differences. Meantime, the solar panel makers are also facing new uncertainty in Germany, one of their other major markets, as that country said it plans to phase out many incentives to boost the installation of new solar capacity by 2017 and is already starting to make changes. (English article) The loss of 2 such major markets won’t be good for the industry in the short term, though it should hasten the introduction of new technologies that could boost efficiency and help the industry finally achieve its real goal of making a product that can survive on its own based on real economics rather than government subsidies. Meantime, the wind industry could soon be coming under similar pressure, as the US is also launching an investigation into unfair subsidies for Chinese wind tower makers. (English article) This action could hit another promising group of companies, though it should be less damaging as it focuses on makers of lower-tech towers as opposed to the more critical wind turbines that actually produce electricity. Still, this kind of trade war won’t help the industry’s development as a whole, and all parties would be much better served finding a less combative way to address the issue of state subsidies.
Bottom line: Looming US punitive tariffs and a winding down of German subsidies bode poorly for the battered solar industry in 2012, with at least 2 more years of pain likely.
Related postings 相关文章:
◙ Solar Matures With Foxconn Entry
◙ India Turns Up Heat on Solar With New Probe
◙ Beijing Boosts Solar In Latest Mixed Signal 中国扩张太阳能行业发展 解决与美争端立场混乱
