New Solar Signals: Slowdown Easing Amid Writedowns 太阳能企业减计库存 行业或将开始摆脱危机
The latest signals from embattled solar panel makers indicate the sector’s worst-ever downturn could be starting to ease, even as China turns up the rhetoric in a growing war of words over dumping accusations by Western manufacturers. Both Canadian Solar (Nasdaq: CSIQ) and Renesola (NYSE: SOL) have released updated guidance ahead of their official third-quarter announcements and the word, while downbeat, appears to show some signs that the crisis has bottomed out. Both firms lowered their margin outlook by moderate amounts, and both also lowered their third-quarter shipment targets, but again only by small to moderate amounts. (Canadian Solar announcement; Renesola announcement) But perhaps more significantly, both firms took big write-downs for unsold inventory, with Renesola writing down $20 million and Canadian Solar writing off about twice that amount. As a result, Renesola said it will post a $8 million loss for the third quarter. These write-downs follow a similar write-down announced last week by Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL) (previous post), which gave similar lowered guidance as well. (previous post) In my view these write-downs look relatively significant, as one wouldn’t expect to see companies take such write-downs unless they were fairly confident the worst of the downturn was over, as most prefer to take this kind of charge all at once rather than repeatedly in smaller amounts over a longer period. Renesola itself sounded a slightly upbeat note, saying it expected more gloom in the fourth quarter and first quarter of 2012, but that things could improve after that. Meantime, China made a significant gesture in response to allegations that it unfairly subsidies its solar panel makers, with a major state-run firm announcing it was suspending plans to build $500 million worth of solar energy plants in the US due to uncertainty about potential new punitive tariffs against China solar panel makers. (English article) Indeed, such a plan would become uneconomical if the US imposes punitive tariffs, as the Chinese builder was planning to use Chinese-built solar cells for this series of plants which would suddenly become much more expensive under new tariffs. I still think the US is likely to levy these tariffs due to election-year politics, but clearly this kind of tactic by the Chinese may make some US policymakers think twice about such actions.
Bottom line: New guidance from 2 major solar players appear to show an easing of the industry’s crisis, as the war of words heats up in the US-China solar trade dispute.
Related postings 相关文章:
◙ Solar Fight Sees Accusations Flying 中美太阳能纠纷引发口水大战
◙ China Solars Brace for Icy 2012 With US Trade Complaint 中国太阳能产业需直面美欧关税壁垒
