Nissan Jumps on China Expansion Bandwagon, Overcapacity Ahead 日产加入中国市场扩张潮未来料产能过剩

By newsdoug on July 27, 2011

Uphill road ahead for China automakers China seems destined for a big glut in its car-building capacity, with Nissan Motor (Tokyo: 7201) becoming the latest global auto maker to announce a major expansion in the market, with plans to spend $7.8 billion to nearly double its capacity over the next four years. (English article) This latest announcement between Nissan and Chinese partner Dongfeng (HKEx: 489), comes just weeks after Daimler (Frankfurt: DCXGn) announced a 2 billion euro expansion of its plant with Beijing-based BAIC (English article), and follows other similarly super-sized announcements by Ford (NYSE: F) and Volkswagen (Frankfurt: VOWG). The general tenor seems to be that most companies are planning to nearly double their China capacity over the next four years or so. The only problem is, growth in China’s auto market, now the world’s biggest, is slowing considerably from its turbo charged days of 2009 and 2010, when incentives from Beijing fueled the gains. With those incentives now gone and many cities actually rolling out dis-incentives for new car buying to ease congestion, most analysts are saying to look for annual growth of 10 percent at best over the next few years, and at worst little or no growth and possibly even contraction. So in a best-case scenario, we’d be looking at 40-50 percent growth in total demand over the next 4 years, while capacity will probably double over that period. The only outcome in all of this can be a massive supply glut, which could see the automakers’ China profits quickly evaporate as they are forced to lower prices to sell all those cars. I see a bit of consolidation in the cards, especially among the smaller domestic players without big foreign partners, who will most likely be forced out of business as losses mount. But the broader industry is certain to suffer overall, with China losing a bit of its luster as one of the world’s most profitable car markets.

Bottom line: Nissan’s new plan to nearly double its China capacity is part of a broader trend that will see the country end up with a major supply glut by 2015.

中国似乎是注定了要走向汽车产能大幅过剩之路。日本日产汽车<7201.T>日前加入全球其他大品牌的阵营，宣布在华扩张计划。该公司计划未来四年在华投资78亿美元，推动产能接近翻番。而就在日产与合作夥伴东风<0489.HK>宣布新计划几周前，戴姆勒<DCXGn.DE>与北汽也宣布20亿欧元的在华扩张计划，此前福特<F.N>、大众<VOWG.DE>等均有类似动作。主旨大概是：多数公司计划未来四年左右实现在华产能接近翻番。这里唯一的问题是，相对於2009年与2010年时的突飞猛进，中国车市增长速度现在正在放缓。中国当时的汽车激励政策现已不再推行，而且很多城市为了缓解交通堵塞问题，实际上实行了不鼓励购买新车的政策。为此，大多分析人士预计，未来几年中国车市最快增速为10%，差的话可能增速很低、不会增长或更甚者可能会萎缩。所以在最佳状况下，未来四年汽车总需求增速大约应为40%-50%，而同期产能则可能翻番。最後的结果只能是大幅的供应过剩，很多厂商被迫降价销售，在华利润迅速蒸发。我预计汽车行业将出现整合，尤其是那些缺少海外大牌合作的中国较小汽车厂商，亏损日增很可能最终会迫使这些企业关门大吉。而随着中国作为全球利润最丰厚车市的光环逐渐淡去，整个行业也必将在劫难逃。

一句话：日产的增产计划是随了大品牌在中国车市的产能扩张潮，这一趋势的结果应该是，到2015年中国车市供应过剩。