Number Portability: It’s Coming, But Don’t Hold Your Breath 携号转网阻力重重

By newsdoug on June 17, 2011

Switchin' ain't easy in China's mobile market Number portability — the ability to change mobile carriers without changing your phone number — is slogging ahead in China at a snail’s pace, and I’ve no doubt that resistance from the carriers, most notably China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL), is to blame. People often resist switching their mobile company, even when other carriers offer more attractive plans, because they don’t want to change their phone number and risk being unreachable by their old contacts. Number portability was designed to solve this problem, allowing someone to switch carriers without losing their old phone number. While most developed countries have had number portability for years, China, after years of talk, finally conducted a 6-month trial program in Tianjin and Hainan that just wrapped up in May. In what should come as no big surprise, only 50,000 people managed to change carriers while keeping their old phone numbers in that time, or just a tenth of people who actually applied to do so. (English article; Chinese article) As a result of this weak result, a spokesman from the telecoms regulator said plans to roll out number portability nationwide, originally set for the end of this year, will be delayed a year. I’ve no doubt that China Mobile, with 70 percent of China’s mobile market, was one of the biggest forces making life difficult for anyone to change numbers. Especially in the 3G era, when many would like to switch to superior service offered by rivals China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU) and China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA), China Mobile has everything to lose and little or nothing to gain by making number portability easier. Still, that’s no excuse for delaying, and the regulator should be more forceful in pushing China Mobile to cooperate with this initiative if it wants to usher in an era of more balanced competition for its telecoms sector.

Bottom line: Foot-dragging by China’s 3 mobile carriers is stalling China’s move to mobile number portability, aiding China Mobile as it fends off aggressive advances by its 2 rivals.

中国正在缓慢推进手机携号转网，即不换号实现手机运营商转换。我认为，该进展迟缓无疑应归咎於运营商的抵制，尤其是中国移动<0941.HK> <CHL.N>。人们往往不愿更换手机运营商，即使其它运营商提供了更诱人的计划，原因是他们不想换号，不希望以前的联系人找不到他们。携号转网就能解决这个问题，用户可以不换号转网。大多数发达国家已推广该项服务多年，而中国在讨论了数年後，终於在天津和海南进行了为期六个月的试点项目，试验期刚於今年5月结束。并不令人感到意外的是，试验期只有5万人实现携号转网，仅为申请人数的十分之一。由於试行效果不佳，工信部发言人表示，将推迟一年向全国推广携号转网，而该计划原定於今年年底落实。我毫不怀疑，占中国手机市场七成份额的中国移动是最大的阻力之一。尤其是在3G领域，许多人肯定希望转用中国联通<0762.HK><CHU.N>和中国电信<0728.HK><CHA.N>的更优质服务，所以中国移动若支持携号转网将得不偿失。但这不是拖延的理由。工信部若希望引导国内电信商公平竞争，就应敦促中国移动配合携号转网计划。

一句话：中国三大移动运营商犹豫不决，阻碍中国实现携号转网计划。这种情况对中国移动有利，因为它不愿看到两大竞争对手从中获益。