Outlook Dims for Suntech 尚德电力：衰退的光伏行业最後的受害者
The outlook is slowly fading for China’s solar cell manufacturing giants, as international markets turn down the volume of their incentives for installation of new solar energy. The latest of the big Chinese players to fall victim to the uncertainty is Suntech (NYSE: STP), which has lowered its 2011 revenue guidance, albeit slightly, to between $3.3 billion and $3.5 billion, down from a previous $3.4 billion to $3.6 billion. (English article; results announcement) As many of you will recall, Suntech’s lowered forecast comes after Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL) and Yingli (NYSE: YGE) warned they would miss their targets, with both companies citing clarifications regarding incentive policies in Italy’s solar market for the shortfall. (previous post) All of this just underscores the need for China to come out with its own domestic incentives for installation of solar power, effectively making these companies less reliant on exports to sell the millions of solar panels they produce. Several reports earlier this month suggested that China was planning to sharply raise its target for domestic solar energy plants in its new 5 year plan from a previous 5 gigawatts to 10 gigawatts. But a report I read just today from CCID, a government-linked research house, was still using the 5 gigawatt figure, suggesting the plan is far from final. Considering the volatility of the global solar market at present, I wouldn’t be surprised to see more downgrades from Suntech, Trina and others on their 2011 outlook, which may finally prod Beijing into coming out with definitive new aggressive goals for solar installation to help support the industry.
Bottom line: Look for more downward revisions in outlook from solar cell makers in the next two quarters, which should spur Beijing into giving more aggressive support for the industry.
对於中国太阳能电池生产巨头来说，前途已经开始黯淡，因为国际市场在减少对安装太阳能电池的补贴措施。中国同类厂商中最近的一个受害者是尚德电力<STP.N>，这家公司将2011年营收展望调至33亿-35亿美元，较之前的34亿-36亿美元有所减少。很多人可能还记得，天合光能<TSL.N>和英利<YGE.N>此前曾表示，可能没法达到预期，且将原因归咎於意大利太阳能市场的激励政策的变动。这一切都说明，中国需要为本土太阳能市场推出激励政策，好让这些生产了数百万个太阳能电池板的公司不那麽依赖出口。本月此前有多份报导称，中国在十二五规划中，计划将国内的光伏装机容量从500万千瓦提高到1,000万千瓦。但我今天从中国电子信息产业发展研究院的一份报告中发现，数字依然是500万千瓦，这说明上述计划还不远是最终决定。考虑到最近全球太阳能市场的动荡，尚德电力、天合光能和英利调低2011年营收展望并不会让我感到意外，而这可能最终会推动中国政府定下新的光伏发电目标，以扶植这个行业。
一句话：未来两个季度预计光伏生产商将继续调低展望，这将推动中国政府制定更多激励措施扶植光伏行业发展。
Related postings 相关文章:
◙ Italian Cloud Casts Shadow on Solar Sector, Pressures Beijing 意大利阴云笼罩中国太阳能产业
◙ China Boosts Solar Firms with Power Plan 中国太阳能产业荣景可待
