Bottom line: ZhongAn’s and Qudian’s IPOs are likely to price and debut strongly over the next few weeks on excitement about China fintech, while Best’s will debut to indifference following the slashing of its size.
ZhongAn, Qudian IPOs look hot
Three companies likely to list in New York and Hong Kong by the end of this month are setting the tone for what’s set to be a busy fall for similar new offshore offerings from Chinese companies. Two of those are coming from the hot fintech sector, where online microlender Qudian and online insurance seller ZhongAn appear to be drawing strong interest in IPOs that could each raise north of $1 billion. But logistics company Best Inc is moving firmly in the other direction, with the announcement that it has just slashed the size of its fund-raising plan by nearly half.
Neither of these themes is completely surprising, since fintech has become a hugely lucrative area in China due to the relatively greenfield nature of the sector. Until only very recently, nearly all financial services in China were dominated by state-run companies, which aren’t exactly known for their innovation and embrace of technology. That’s also partly true for logistics, though in that case the industry has quickly become a bit of a bloodbath plagued with cutthroat competition among around 10 major players. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: The US could veto the purchase of brokerage Cowen by a Chinese energy firm, and could also block Ant Financial’s purchase of MoneyGram under tougher scrutiny by the Donald Trump administration.
US set to block more Chinese purchases?
Just days after President Donald Trump made his first veto of a Chinese deal in the US, two other deals appear to be running into trouble for similar reasons, though it’s too early to call either dead just yet. In both instances, the buyers, Ant Financial and CEFC China Energy, have refiled proposals to regulators for their purchases of two financial services firms, MoneyGram (NYSE: MGI) and Cowen Inc. (Nasdaq: COWN), respectively. Both need approval from the powerful Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), which reviews all such cross-border deals for national security considerations.
The regulatory stalling of those two deals comes just days after Trump officially killed another deal for a China-backed bid to buy Lattice Semiconductor (Nasdaq: LSCC), (previous post). So now people are trying to draw connections between these developments. Since that veto, China’s official Xinhua news agency has come out with an editorial over the weekend saying Trump is only hurting America by blocking such deals, which are part of the natural ebb and flow of global trade. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: The US is likely to take a tougher stance towards Chinese M&A of politically sensitive companies following Trump’s veto of a major deal, but in such cases will still need to justify the national security risk.
Trump vetoes sale of chipmaker
In a move that is sure to make major waves but wasn’t completely unexpected, Donald Trump has made his first big statement on the sale of US high-tech companies to Chinese buyers by formally blocking a relatively large deal that was pending for quite some time. Followers of the space may recognize I’m talking about chipmaker Lattice Semiconductor (Nasdaq: LSCC), which was set to be bought by a China-backed private equity firm in a deal that has dragged on for more than a year.
Some might argue that this marks a big setback for cross-border M&A between China and the US in the high-tech realm, though the decision does seem consistent with what we’ve seen in the past. I’ll recount some of the deals we’ve seen previously vetoed for similar reasons, which usually involves defense applications. Perhaps the major difference here is that Trump has made the first such move quite early in his presidency, which could presage a more aggressive position for national security reviews in future deals. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: A new music re-licensing deal between Alibaba and Tencent, combined with a meeting between the copyright regulator and major online music sellers, hint at attempts to create a more level playing field in the space.
Alibaba, Tencent in music cross-licensing deal
A couple of items from the music sector are in the headlines today, showing how tricky the situation is becoming with copyrights and online licensing in China. One of those has two major players, the music services of Internet giants Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) and Tencent(HKEx: 700), signing an agreement to cross-license music to each other when one of them owns the rights to such music. The other has China’s copyright office actually calling a meeting between those two companies and two other major players, NetEase(Nasdaq: NTES) and Baidu(Nasdaq: BIDU), to discuss issues confronting the industry.
Two issues appear to be driving these two deals that appear to be related. One is concerns from the music industry that rights to their songs will become fragmented and confined to single platforms under the current licensing system, limiting consumer choice. Similar concerns might also be what’s driving the regulator to get involved as well. An interesting footnote to this might be whether the same thing could soon happen in the video licensing arena, which shares similar issues. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Huawei could overtake Apple as the world’s second largest smartphone seller in the next 1-2 years, while it could also pose a challenge in global cloud services over the next 5 years.
Huawei takes a shot at the cloud
We’ll begin the new week with a couple of items from Huaweithat show how the company that began as a telecoms network builder looks set to unseat fading PC giant Lenovo (HKEx: 992) as China’s global leader in consumer tech. The first of those has one research house releasing data that show Huawei’s smartphones surpassed Apple(Nasdaq: AAPL) for two consecutive months in June and July to become the world’s second largest brand. The second has a Huawei executive discussing his plans for the company’s cloud computing services, saying he wants to become a global top 5 player.
The first headline shows that Huawei is not a company to be taken lightly, which means that people should pay close attention to the second headline. In my years of covering Huawei, the company has proven to be quite focused and determined, and pours large amounts of money into product development to make sure it can meet its goals. It focused its early efforts on building traditional telecoms networks, but more recently has moved to enterprise networks and consumer devices like smartphones and notebook computer. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Google’s campaign to build a China-based artificial intelligence team is at least partly designed to woo Beijing, as part of its broader effort to get permission to open a China-based Google Play app store.
Google Play edging towards China?
In the latest signal of its move back to China, Internet titan Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) is apparently on a hiring spree in Beijing that looks aimed at building up an artificial intelligence (AI) team in the world’s largest online market. This particular move doesn’t come as a huge surprise, and seems to be part of Google’s recent obsession with the world’s biggest Internet market.
The backstory is that Google quit China seven years ago, at least for its core search business that is the backbone of its operations in other markets, due to a dispute over Beijing’s tough policies requiring all sites to self-police themselves for sensitive content. But over the last two or three years Google has had a change of heart, realizing it really can’t afford to ignore an Internet market that has 750 million users. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: BYD’s new order from Shenzhen shows its continued reliance on state support for new energy vehicle sales, while its new monorail product could become a cash cow in 1-2 years if the technology works well.
BYD gets new order from Shenzhen, launches monorail
Futuristic transport company BYD (HKEx: 1211; 002594) is in a couple of headlines as the new work week begins, seeking to show its potential and justify why people like billionaire investor Warren Buffet should buy and hold its shares. One headline has the company announcing a major new contract for its core electric vehicles from its hometown government of Shenzhen. The other has the company formally launching its newest business helping cities build monorails.
I’ll admit I wasn’t even aware of the company’s monorail plan, which apparently is aimed at providing cheaper mass transit alternates for big cities to traditional subways and light rail. The idea certainly sounds interesting, though we would probably require a more seasoned urban transport expert to talk about the pros and cons of such systems. Still, it does show the company is trying to innovate and stay ahead of the curve. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Jumei could formally abandon its stalled buyout plan soon, putting more downward pressure on its stock, while iKang needs to enter serious negotiations with two bidders for the company.
Jumei, iKang under pressure over stalled buyouts
Ever wonder what happened to a handful of buyout plans for US-listed Chinese companies that were announced more than two years ago but never got completed? That’s certainly not a question that keeps most of us up at nights, but it’s suddenly popping into the headlines with a series of scathing letters from a minority investor called Heng Ren, which is criticizing two of the unfinished deals.
Specifically, Heng Ren is blasting online cosmetics seller Jumei International (NYSE: JMEI) and clinic operator iKang (Nasdaq: KANG), which both announced plans to privatize quite a while ago but have yet to complete those. These aren’t the only two whose privatization plans, which were part of a wave in the first half of 2015, failed to get completed. But most of the others that failed to complete their buyouts, including YY (Nasdaq: YY) and Momo (Nasdaq: MOMO), made specific announcements that they were abandoning their plans. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Samsung’s new $7 billion investment in a chip expansion in Xi’an should help to earn big government goodwill, which could help position its smartphone division for a rebound in China.
Samsung expands chip chip plant
A major new China investment by chip maker Samsung(Seoul: 005930) is spotlighting just how important the market has become to the company, and South Korean companies in general, and how they are trying to play into Beijing’s agendas to maintain their place at the table. That’s become all the more important lately, as a disagreement between Beijing and Seoul has been costing South Korean companies business in China, as often happens when such political disputes spill out into the business sector.
This particular investment, totaling $7 billion, was obviously in the planning stages long before that dispute broke out earlier this year, involving Seoul’s decision to install a sophisticated anti-missile defense system supplied by the US to counter the North Korean threat. But Samsung’s decision to make its announcement now looks shrewd, as it should win it some goodwill from Beijing at a time when the company’s smartphones face similar struggles in China that they’re seeing in the rest of the world. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Best Inc is likely to make its New York IPO in the next two weeks, but its shares will price in the middle of their range and debut weakly due to stiff competition in the logistics sector.
Best Inc. raises IPO target
It’s been a quiet year so far for major Chinese IPOs in New York, but all that looks set to change soon with several major offerings coming down the pipeline. One of those is in the headlines as we head into the end of August, with word that Best Inc, also known as Best Logistics, is driving towards a New York offering that will raise up to $1 billion. That deal was first announced in June, so it’s a bit unclear why it has taken so long to jump back into the headlines with this boosted fund-raising target.
Based on what I’m hearing from one of my sources, the US securities regulator is giving extra scrutiny to a group of fintech companies that are all lining up to list in New York before the end of the year, due to the newness of the business type. Best Inc doesn’t really fall into that group, as it’s in a traditional business that’s thriving due to China’s e-commerce boom. What’s more, this company is also backed by e-commerce giant Alibaba (NYSE: BABA), and counts the former head of Google(Nasdaq: GOOG) China as its chief. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: The rumored departure of LeEco’s mobile chief is likely to be followed by the official closure of its smartphone division and sale of its Coolpad stake by the end of October.
LeEco mobile head reportedly resigns
As we approach the first anniversary of the crisis that has seen the rapid demise of LeEco(Shenzhen: 300104), the latest headlines are hinting at the imminent unraveling of the former video superstar’s smartphone business. The headlines I’m referring to say the CEO of LeEco’s mobile division, who has the very un-Chinese looking name of Abulikemu Abulimiti, has left the company.
Like many other things involving LeEco these days, there’s no official confirmation from the company on whether the mobile division chief has really left. Instead, the reports are quoting company insiders, but adding that it’s a bit unclear whether he has actually left or just resigned. That pretty much reflects the state of chaos at LeEco these days, where it’s quite difficult to confirm what exactly is happening inside the company anymore. Read Full Post…
