Bottom line: A US investigation of Huawei into possible illegal sales of US-made equipment to Iran is old news, and may be getting dredged up now to give Washington leverage in its ongoing trade frictions with China.
Huawei under microscope for potential illegal sales to Iran
Some might argue that US sanctions against telecoms equipment maker ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) are just the prelude to a much bigger story that could now be sharping up, with word that ZTE’s much larger rival Huaweiis being probed in a similar case. The subject at the heart of this matter involves sales of American-made equipment to Iran, which would have violated earlier US sanctions against such sales to pressure Iran to curtail its nuclear program.
In fact, I’m quite surprised that this probe against Huawei is coming back into the headlines just now. Media reported on this potential probe as early as 2013, at the same time reports first emerged about a similar probe into ZTE. Additional reports appeared about a year ago saying an unnamed company was being investigated for violations similar to ZTE, with strong hints that the company was Huawei. (previous post) Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Apple’s Tim Cook and other big global CEOs active in China will need to walk a fine line to avoid being forced to take sides in ongoing US-China trade frictions.
Apple CEO Cook talks US-China tensions on latest China trip
Apple(Nasdaq: AAPL) CEO Tim Cook was in China once again this past weekend, in what seems to be becoming his second home. This time around Cook was one of the few corporate chiefs attending the China Development Forum, a major annual conference sponsored by China’s State Council. The event is mostly peopled by academics and government officials, and thus Cook’s attendance is both a feather in Beijing’s cap and also something of a nod to Cook’s own status as a global high-tech titan as he tries to stay in the nation’s good graces.
His major proclamations at the event weren’t all that earth-shattering. But he inevitably felt compelled to comment on the Donald Trump administration’s announcement last week of new punitive tariffs on China for unfair trade practices. He didn’t venture too far into the matter, and mostly urged both sides to stay calm in the face of rising trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Alibaba’s potential purchase of Ele.me could be the biggest piece yet in its pursuit of a “new retail” model, but could result in a case of indigestion as it tries to make the company profitable.
Alibaba salivates at Ele.me
When it comes to acquisitions, e-commerce giant Alibaba(NYSE: BABA) seems to have an insatiable appetite these days. After investing some 80 billion yuan ($12.7 billion) in brick-and-mortar retailing over the last couple of years, the company is now setting its eyes on take-out dining specialist Ele.me, in a deal that could cost it around another $5 billion.
This particular buying binge does seem a bit more focused than Alibaba’s previous M&A patterns, which always felt a bit more random to me and covered a wide range of areas. In this instance, the company is pursuing founder Jack Ma’s vision of a “new retail” landscape that will combine Alibaba’s mastery of e-commerce with more traditional brick-and-mortar retailing. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Huawei’s latest big financial commitment to the UK is mostly for show, but Britain could still emerge as a winner over the longer term if Huawei conducts more R&D work in its British labs.
Huawei gives $4.2 billion gift to UK
After getting the cold shoulder from the US for its smartphones, telecoms superstar Huaweiis turning increasingly to Europe, and specifically to Britain, for consolation. That’s the key takeaway from the latest reports that say Huawei has told British Prime Minister Theresa May that it will spend a further 3 billion pounds ($4.2 billion) on procurement from the UK on top of its other commitments to the country. (English article)
This particular move seems mostly political, and also it’s questionable how significant it is. Huawei made its commitment last week during a trip by Theresa May to China, and this kind of mega-commitment is quite common during these meetings between Chinese and global leaders. The fact of the matter is that Huawei posted 600 billion yuan ($97 billion) in sales last year, meaning it had to spend perhaps half of that amount, or around $50 billion, on procurement of various components for its core networking equipment and smartphones. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Baidu’s anti-competitive behavior alleged in a lawsuit by Jinri Toutiao won’t have a long-term effect on its stock, but will draw the attention of an increasingly assertive anti-trust regulator.
Toutiao sues Baidu for manipulating search results
A humorous war of words has broken out between search leader Baidu(Nasdaq: BIDU) and news aggregating app Jinri Toutiao, also sometimes called Today’s Headlines, over unfair competition in the form of search manipulation. I’ll detail the allegations shortly. But on a more serious note, this particular lawsuit does raise the question of whether a search engine like Baidu is obliged to be objective in its results. Moreover, it could also open the company to allegations of abusing its market-leading position with anti-competitive actions.
This kind of monopoly-like position has become a growing issue on China’s Internet, which has recently shed the notion of being too small for antitrust treatment. The original BAT of Baidu, Alibaba(NYSE: BABA) and Tencent(HKEx: 700) all now hold positions in search, e-commerce and games, respectively, that are quite lucrative and might be considered monopolies in many other markets. I personally would consider all three monopolies in China in terms of their ability to dominate their respective markets, and I suspect the regulator may someday attempt to challenge them the way that Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) and Facebook (Nasdaq: FB) are now getting challenged in the rest of the world. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Google has quietly resumed updates of its China mapping service in a bid to tap the booming local market for location-based services.
Google resumes China mapping updates
Are they or aren’t they? That’s the question going through everyone’s minds these days about Google’s(Nasdaq: GOOG) stealth return to China, following reports that the company has quietly re-launched its previously dormant mapping service in the market. In this case there are quite a few conflicting signals, including the one coming from Google itself, which says nothing has changed with its mapping service.
I was a bit surprised at Google’s definitive statement, since I can say with certainty that the company has indeed resumed updating its popular mapping service following a dormant period of at least a few years after shuttering its China-based search service in 2010. Last year there was similar word that Google’s map site had resumed service in China, and I went and checked the URL at the time. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: The collapse of Ant Financial’s purchase of MoneyGram reflects growing resistance from a Trump administration willing to mix business and politics in its relationship with China.
Ant’s purchase of MoneyGram sinks
In yet the latest sign that the Donald Trump administration intends to take a hard line towards Chinese M&A, Washington has killed a $1.2 billion deal that would have seen Alibaba-affiliated (NYSE: BABA) Ant Financial purchase US money-transfer specialist MoneyGram (Nasdaq: MGI). This particular development isn’t a huge surprise, since the deal was first announced about a year ago and its closure deadline was extended several times while the US hemmed and hawed on its national security review.
The de facto veto is also just the latest move by a Trump administration that has shown it won’t let US companies in the strategic tech and financial industries be acquired by Chinese counterparts. But this particular veto is also noteworthy because it’s one of the largest so far involving a purely private sector Chinese buyer. Up to now, nearly all the deals to be vetoed have come from buyers with strong links to Beijing, either directly or through government-supplied financing. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Sogou is unlikely to shed its position as a second-tier search engine anytime soon, despite its ties to Tencent ties, and its stock is also unlikely to be a strong performer over the next 2-3 years.
Sogou pops on debut, but will it hold?
After writing about up-and-coming hot new names like Qudian (NYSE: QD) and ZhongAn Insurance (HKEx: 6060) making blockbuster IPOs over these last few weeks, it feels a bit like going back to the future by writing today about a new listing for search engine Sogou (NYSE: SOGO). The fact of the matter is that Qudian, ZhongAn and just about all of the companies listing in this current wave of IPOs didn’t even exist when Sogou was born, and many of their founders were probably still in college or perhaps younger.
Anyone out there sensing just a tiny bit of skepticism from what I’ve just written isn’t just imagining things. As a longtime China tech reporter, I remember meeting with Charles Zhang, founder of Sogou’s parent Sohu (Nasdaq: SOHU), more than a decade ago, at which time he told me about all the great things in store for his then-fledgling search engine. Fast forward to the present, when it doesn’t seem like much has changed, including Sogou’s ongoing status as a niche player in China’s massive search market. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: ZhongAn should perform reasonably well over the short- to medium-term by drawing on its big-name investors for business, but faces uncertainty due to an untested business model.
ZhongAn banks on online insurance
There’s not a ton to say about the year’s first blockbuster IPO from the fintech realm, since it really went pretty much according to plan. I’m talking about the just-concluded listing for online-only insurance startup ZhongAn Online Property & Casualty Insurance, which was almost guaranteed a strong debut when its shares began trading yesterday in Hong Kong.
The bigger question for ZhongAn and its other fintech peers will be whether they can continue to thrive once the spotlights are gone and they have to do business over the longer term. Anyone can pretty up their books in the run-up to an IPO, but keeping the business flowing afterwards is often a bit more problematic. ZhongAn could be a good case in point, as its product lineup seems to be constantly evolving, as does the lineup for many of these fintech firms, due to individual and broader industry factors. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Diversification moves away from manufacturing by Canadian Solar and ReneSola could bring more stability to the companies, while panel makers are likely to take a big hit from new US anti-dumping measures.
ReneSola, Canadian Solar in new diversification moves
A trio of solar energy stories are in the headlines that underscore difficulties panel makers are facing due to a recent glut that looks quite typical in this highly cyclical sector. Two of the stories reflect a trend that has panel makers trying to diversify into the less cycle-prone business of solar plant building, with major new developments from Canadian Solar (Nasdaq: CSIQ) and ReneSola (NYSE: SOL). The third has a research house predicting demand for the panels, which are the main component of such plants, could dive by up to half in the US this year, following a major new anti-dumping ruling by Washington.
Again, all of this shows that the world is still swamped with too much solar panel-making capacity and is in sore need of a downsizing. The main obstacle to that is coming from China, where many companies have slipped into the loss column but refuse to slim down due to resistance from local interests intent on staying in the business come hell or high water. It’s a bit unclear who will blink first in this battle to stay in business, though in this kind of war the market usually determines who emerges as victor. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: ZhongAn’s and Qudian’s IPOs are likely to price and debut strongly over the next few weeks on excitement about China fintech, while Best’s will debut to indifference following the slashing of its size.
ZhongAn, Qudian IPOs look hot
Three companies likely to list in New York and Hong Kong by the end of this month are setting the tone for what’s set to be a busy fall for similar new offshore offerings from Chinese companies. Two of those are coming from the hot fintech sector, where online microlender Qudian and online insurance seller ZhongAn appear to be drawing strong interest in IPOs that could each raise north of $1 billion. But logistics company Best Inc is moving firmly in the other direction, with the announcement that it has just slashed the size of its fund-raising plan by nearly half.
Neither of these themes is completely surprising, since fintech has become a hugely lucrative area in China due to the relatively greenfield nature of the sector. Until only very recently, nearly all financial services in China were dominated by state-run companies, which aren’t exactly known for their innovation and embrace of technology. That’s also partly true for logistics, though in that case the industry has quickly become a bit of a bloodbath plagued with cutthroat competition among around 10 major players. Read Full Post…
